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Demographic but not competitive time lags can transiently amplify climate‐induced changes in vegetation carbon storage
Global Change Biology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2024-08-02 , DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17432 Jonathan M Levine 1 , Janneke HilleRisLambers 2 , William K Petry 3 , Jacob Usinowicz 4 , Thomas W Crowther 2
Global Change Biology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2024-08-02 , DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17432 Jonathan M Levine 1 , Janneke HilleRisLambers 2 , William K Petry 3 , Jacob Usinowicz 4 , Thomas W Crowther 2
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How terrestrial ecosystems will accumulate carbon as the climate continues to change is a major source of uncertainty in projections of future climate. Under growth‐stimulating environmental change, time lags inherent in population and community dynamic processes have been posed to dampen, or alternatively amplify, short‐term carbon gain in terrestrial vegetation, but these outcomes can be difficult to predict. To theoretically frame this problem, we developed a simple model of vegetation dynamics that identifies the stage‐structured demographic and competitive processes that could govern the timescales of carbon storage and loss. We show that demographic lags associated with growth‐stimulating environmental change can allow a rapid increase in population‐level carbon storage that is lost back to the atmosphere in later years. However, this transient carbon storage only emerges when environmental change increases the transition of adult individuals into a larger size class that suffers markedly higher mortality. Otherwise, demographic lags simply slow carbon accumulation. Counterintuitively, an analogous tradeoff between maximum adult size and survivorship in two‐species models, coupled with environmental change‐driven replacement, does not generate the transient carbon gain seen in the single‐species models. Instead lags in competitive replacement slow the approach to the eventual carbon trajectory. Together, our results suggest that time lags inherent in demographic and compositional turnover tend to slow carbon accumulation in systems responding to growth‐stimulating environmental change. Only under specific conditions will lagged demographic processes in such systems drive transient carbon accumulation, conditions that investigators can examine in nature to help project future carbon trajectories.
中文翻译：
人口而非竞争的时间滞后可以暂时放大气候引起的植被碳储存变化
随着气候持续变化，陆地生态系统如何积累碳是未来气候预测不确定性的主要来源。在刺激生长的环境变化下，人口和群落动态过程固有的时间滞后会抑制或放大陆地植被的短期碳增益，但这些结果可能很难预测。为了从理论上框架这个问题，我们开发了一个简单的植被动态模型，该模型确定了可以控制碳储存和损失时间尺度的阶段结构人口和竞争过程。我们表明，与刺激增长的环境变化相关的人口滞后可能会导致人口水平的碳储存量迅速增加，而这些碳储存量会在以后的几年中消失回大气中。然而，这种短暂的碳储存只有在环境变化导致成年个体向更大体型转变且死亡率明显更高时才会出现。否则，人口滞后只会减缓碳积累。与直觉相反，双物种模型中成虫最大体型和存活率之间的类似权衡，加上环境变化驱动的替代，并不会产生单物种模型中看到的瞬时碳增益。相反，竞争性替代的滞后会减缓最终碳轨迹的实现。总之，我们的结果表明，人口和成分更替所固有的时间滞后往往会减缓系统中响应刺激增长的环境变化的碳积累。 只有在特定条件下，此类系统中滞后的人口统计过程才会推动短暂的碳积累，研究人员可以在自然界中检查这些条件，以帮助预测未来的碳轨迹。
更新日期：2024-08-02
中文翻译：
人口而非竞争的时间滞后可以暂时放大气候引起的植被碳储存变化
随着气候持续变化，陆地生态系统如何积累碳是未来气候预测不确定性的主要来源。在刺激生长的环境变化下，人口和群落动态过程固有的时间滞后会抑制或放大陆地植被的短期碳增益，但这些结果可能很难预测。为了从理论上框架这个问题，我们开发了一个简单的植被动态模型，该模型确定了可以控制碳储存和损失时间尺度的阶段结构人口和竞争过程。我们表明，与刺激增长的环境变化相关的人口滞后可能会导致人口水平的碳储存量迅速增加，而这些碳储存量会在以后的几年中消失回大气中。然而，这种短暂的碳储存只有在环境变化导致成年个体向更大体型转变且死亡率明显更高时才会出现。否则，人口滞后只会减缓碳积累。与直觉相反，双物种模型中成虫最大体型和存活率之间的类似权衡，加上环境变化驱动的替代，并不会产生单物种模型中看到的瞬时碳增益。相反，竞争性替代的滞后会减缓最终碳轨迹的实现。总之，我们的结果表明，人口和成分更替所固有的时间滞后往往会减缓系统中响应刺激增长的环境变化的碳积累。 只有在特定条件下，此类系统中滞后的人口统计过程才会推动短暂的碳积累，研究人员可以在自然界中检查这些条件，以帮助预测未来的碳轨迹。
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