Drought risk in Moldova under global warming and possible crop adaptation strategies,Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

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Drought risk in Moldova under global warming and possible crop adaptation strategies
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences ( IF 4.1 ) Pub Date : 2024-07-31 , DOI: 10.1111/nyas.15201
Sergio M Vicente-Serrano ₁ , Carmelo Juez ₁ , Vera Potopová _{2,

3} , Boris Boincean ₄ , Conor Murphy ₅ , Fernando Domínguez-Castro ₁ , Lars Eklundh ₆ , Dhais Peña-Angulo ₇ , Ivan Noguera ₈ , Hongxiao Jin ₆ , Tobias Conradt ₉ , Ricardo Garcia-Herrera _{10,

11} , Jose Manuel Garrido-Perez _{10,

11} , David Barriopedro ₁₁ , Jose M Gutiérrez ₁₂ , Maialen Iturbide ₁₂ , Jorge Lorenzo-Lacruz ₁₃ , Ahmed El Kenawy _{1,

14}

Affiliation

Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (IPE-CSIC), Zaragoza, Spain.
Department of Agroecology and Crop Production Czech Republic, Faculty of Agrobiology, Food and Natural Resources, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Praha, Czech Republic.
Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, Czech Republic.
Selectia Research Institute of Field Crops, Balti, Moldova.
Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS), Department of Geography, Maynooth University, Maynooth, Ireland.
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Department of Geography, University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain.
Centre of Ecology and Hydrology (CEH), Wallingford, UK.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.
Departamento de Ciencias de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Facultad de Ciencias Físicas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain.
Instituto de Geociencias (IGEO), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas-Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain.
Instituto de Física de Cantabria, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (IFCA-CSIC), Santander, Spain.
Department of Human Sciences, Area of Physical Geography, University of La Rioja, Logroño, Spain.
Department of Geography, Mansoura University, Mansoura, Egypt.

This study analyzes the relationship between drought processes and crop yields in Moldova, together with the effects of possible future climate change on crops. The severity of drought is analyzed over time in Moldova using the Standard Precipitation Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and their relationship with crop yields. In addition, rainfall variability and its relationship with crop yields are examined using spectral analysis and squared wavelet coherence. Observed station data (1950–2020 and 1850–2020), ERA5 reanalysis data (1950–2020), and climate model simulations (period 1970–2100) are used. Crop yield data (maize, sunflower, grape), data from experimental plots (wheat), and the Enhanced Vegetation Index from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellites were also used. Results show that although the severity of meteorological droughts has decreased in the last 170 years, the impact of precipitation deficits on different crop yields has increased, concurrent with a sharp increase in temperature, which negatively affected crop yields. Annual crops are now more vulnerable to natural rainfall variability and, in years characterized by rainfall deficits, the possibility of reductions in crop yield increases due to sharp increases in temperature. Projections reveal a pessimistic outlook in the absence of adaptation, highlighting the urgency of developing new agricultural management strategies.

中文翻译：

全球变暖背景下摩尔多瓦的干旱风险和可能的作物适应策略

这项研究分析了摩尔多瓦干旱过程与作物产量之间的关系，以及未来气候变化可能对作物的影响。使用标准降水指数、标准化降水蒸散指数及其与作物产量的关系来分析摩尔多瓦随时间推移的干旱严重程度。此外，还使用频谱分析和平方小波相干性检查了降雨量变化及其与作物产量的关系。使用观测站数据（1950-2020年和1850-2020年）、ERA5再分析数据（1950-2020年）和气候模型模拟（1970-2100年期间）。还使用了作物产量数据（玉米、向日葵、葡萄）、试验田数据（小麦）以及中分辨率成像光谱辐射计卫星的增强植被指数。结果表明，尽管过去170年来气象干旱的严重程度有所减轻，但降水赤字对不同作物产量的影响却有所增加，同时气温急剧升高，对作物产量产生了负面影响。一年生作物现在更容易受到自然降雨变化的影响，在降雨不足的年份，由于气温急剧升高，作物产量减少的可能性增加。预测揭示了在缺乏适应的情况下的悲观前景，凸显了制定新的农业管理战略的紧迫性。

更新日期：2024-07-31

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