Human societies are complex systems and as such have tipping points. They can rapidly transit from one mode of operation to another and thereby change the way they function as a whole. Such transitions appear as financial or economic crises, rapid swings in collective opinion, political regime shifts, or revolutions. In physics collective transitions are known as phase transitions; for example, water exists in states of liquid, ice, and vapor. A few variables determine which state is realized: temperature, pressure, and volume. For social systems it is less clear what determines collective social states. A better understanding of social tipping points would allow us to tackle some of the big challenges more systematically, such as polarization, loss of social cohesion, fragmentation, or the green transition. The physics concept of universality might be key to understanding some tipping points in human societies and why agent-based models (ABMs) might make sense for identifying the transition points. If universality exists in social systems there is hope that relatively simple ABMs will be sufficient for understanding collective social systems in transition; if it does not exist, highly detailed computational models will be unavoidable. Both are possible. Both need new forms of collaboration between the social and natural sciences, and new types of data will be essential.

中文翻译：

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社会科学和自然科学之间新的合作形式对于理解社会系统中快速的集体转变可能是必要的。


人类社会是复杂的系统，因此有临界点。它们可以迅速从一种操作模式转变为另一种操作模式，从而改变它们作为一个整体的运作方式。这种转变表现为金融或经济危机、集体意见的快速波动、政治政权更迭或革命。在物理学中，集体转变被称为相变。例如，水以液态、冰和气态存在。几个变量决定了实现哪种状态：温度、压力和体积。对于社会系统来说，集体社会状态的决定因素还不太清楚。更好地理解社会临界点将使我们能够更系统地应对一些重大挑战，例如两极分化、社会凝聚力丧失、碎片化或绿色转型。普遍性的物理概念可能是理解人类社会中的一些临界点以及为什么基于代理的模型（ABM）对于识别转变点可能有意义的关键。如果社会系统存在普遍性，那么相对简单的ABM有望足以理解转型中的集体社会系统；如果它不存在，高度详细的计算模型将是不可避免的。两者皆有可能。两者都需要社会科学和自然科学之间新形式的合作，而新型数据将至关重要。