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Climate change alters social‐ecological trade‐offs in achieving ocean futures' targets
Global Change Biology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2024-07-31 , DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17442 Zeyu Zeng 1 , Vicky W Y Lam 1 , U Rashid Sumaila 1 , William W L Cheung 1
Global Change Biology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2024-07-31 , DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17442 Zeyu Zeng 1 , Vicky W Y Lam 1 , U Rashid Sumaila 1 , William W L Cheung 1
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The effects of climate change on marine ecosystems are causing cascading impacts on livelihood, food security, and culture through fisheries. Such impacts interact and exacerbate the effects of overfishing on marine social‐ecological systems, complicating the rebuilding of ecosystems to achieve desirable and sustainable ocean futures. Developing effective pathways for ecosystem rebuilding requires consideration of the co‐benefits and trade‐offs between ecological and social dimensions and between fishing sectors. However, the effects of intensifying climate change on such co‐benefits or trade‐offs are yet to be well understood, particularly in regions where ecosystem rebuilding is urgently needed. We applied a numerical optimization routine to define the scope for improvement toward the Pareto‐frontier for ecological robustness and economic benefits of the northern South China Sea (NSCS) and the East China Sea (ECS) ecosystems. These two ecosystems were used to represent over‐exploited low‐ and mid‐latitude systems, respectively, and the optimization aimed to improve their status through fisheries management. We find that the ECS ecosystem has the possibility of increasing the economic benefits generated by the fisheries it supports under climate change by 2050 while increasing the uncertainty of achieving biodiversity objectives. Nevertheless, climate change is projected to reduce the scope to restore ecosystem structures and the potential economic benefits in the NSCS ecosystem. This study highlights the contrasting impacts of climate change on the co‐benefits/trade‐offs in ecosystem rebuilding and the benefits obtainable by different fishing sectors even in neighboring ecosystems. We conclude that consideration at the nexus of climate–biodiversity‐fisheries is a key to developing effective ecosystem rebuilding plan.
中文翻译：
气候变化改变了实现海洋期货目标的社会生态权衡
气候变化对海洋生态系统的影响正在对生计、粮食安全和渔业文化产生连锁影响。这些影响相互作用并加剧了过度捕捞对海洋社会生态系统的影响，使生态系统的重建复杂化，以实现理想和可持续的海洋未来。制定生态系统重建的有效途径需要考虑生态和社会层面以及渔业部门之间的协同效益和权衡。然而，气候变化加剧对此类共同利益或权衡的影响尚不清楚，特别是在迫切需要重建生态系统的地区。我们应用数值优化程序来定义南海北部（NSCS）和东海（ECS）生态系统的生态稳健性和经济效益的帕累托前沿的改进范围。这两个生态系统分别用来代表过度开发的低纬度和中纬度系统，优化旨在通过渔业管理改善其状况。我们发现，到2050年，ECS生态系统有可能增加其支持的渔业在气候变化下产生的经济效益，同时增加实现生物多样性目标的不确定性。然而，气候变化预计将缩小 NSCS 生态系统恢复生态系统结构的范围和潜在经济效益。这项研究强调了气候变化对生态系统重建的共同利益/权衡的对比影响，以及不同渔业部门甚至在邻近生态系统中获得的利益的对比影响。 我们的结论是，考虑气候-生物多样性-渔业之间的关系是制定有效的生态系统重建计划的关键。
更新日期：2024-07-31
中文翻译：
气候变化改变了实现海洋期货目标的社会生态权衡
气候变化对海洋生态系统的影响正在对生计、粮食安全和渔业文化产生连锁影响。这些影响相互作用并加剧了过度捕捞对海洋社会生态系统的影响，使生态系统的重建复杂化，以实现理想和可持续的海洋未来。制定生态系统重建的有效途径需要考虑生态和社会层面以及渔业部门之间的协同效益和权衡。然而，气候变化加剧对此类共同利益或权衡的影响尚不清楚，特别是在迫切需要重建生态系统的地区。我们应用数值优化程序来定义南海北部（NSCS）和东海（ECS）生态系统的生态稳健性和经济效益的帕累托前沿的改进范围。这两个生态系统分别用来代表过度开发的低纬度和中纬度系统，优化旨在通过渔业管理改善其状况。我们发现，到2050年，ECS生态系统有可能增加其支持的渔业在气候变化下产生的经济效益，同时增加实现生物多样性目标的不确定性。然而，气候变化预计将缩小 NSCS 生态系统恢复生态系统结构的范围和潜在经济效益。这项研究强调了气候变化对生态系统重建的共同利益/权衡的对比影响，以及不同渔业部门甚至在邻近生态系统中获得的利益的对比影响。 我们的结论是，考虑气候-生物多样性-渔业之间的关系是制定有效的生态系统重建计划的关键。
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