Research SummaryThe evaluation literature suggests that focused deterrence strategies are effective in reducing gun violence. However, focused deterrence is notoriously difficult to implement and sustain. The history of focused deterrence implementation failure raises questions about its viability as a gun violence prevention strategy. Stockton, California, implemented focused deterrence three times during the past 25 years. In its most recent version, Stockton officials explicitly designed the strategy to be a permanent feature of the city's violence prevention portfolio. Although program caseloads diminished over the course of the COVID‐19 pandemic and the strategy faced leadership and resource challenges, Stockton's efforts prevented the program from being discontinued and, for those gang members who did receive treatment, delivered a robust gun violence prevention strategy. A quasi‐experimental evaluation shows that treated gang members were less likely to be shot and reduced their violent offending relative to similar untreated gang members. The focused deterrence impacts also appear to spill over to gang members who were socially connected to treated gang members. Although Stockton experienced an increase in homicides over the course of the COVID‐19 pandemic, the increase was not as steep as other comparable California cities.Policy ImplicationsFocused deterrence strategies can be effective responses to gun violence problems when implemented properly. A priori planning is essential when jurisdictions prepare to adopt focused deterrence. Strategic management actions, such as maintaining a robust network of partnering agencies, developing accountability structures and sustainability plans, and conducting upfront and ongoing problem analysis, are critical elements that must be in place for focused deterrence to be effective and sustainable.

中文翻译：

---

集中威慑、战略管理和有效预防枪支暴力


研究摘要评估文献表明，集中威慑策略可以有效减少枪支暴力。然而，众所周知，集中威慑很难实施和维持。集中威慑实施失败的历史引发了人们对其作为枪支暴力预防战略的可行性的质疑。加利福尼亚州斯托克顿在过去25年里3次实施了集中威慑。在最新版本中，斯托克顿官员明确将该战略设计为该市预防暴力组合的永久特征。尽管在 COVID-19 大流行期间，该计划的案件量有所减少，并且该战略面临领导力和资源方面的挑战，但斯托克顿的努力阻止了该计划的终止，并且为那些确实接受治疗的帮派成员提供了强有力的枪支暴力预防战略。一项准实验评估表明，与类似的未经治疗的帮派成员相比，接受治疗的帮派成员被枪杀的可能性较小，并且减少了暴力犯罪。集中的威慑影响似乎也蔓延到与受治疗的帮派成员有社会联系的帮派成员。尽管斯托克顿在 COVID-19 大流行期间凶杀案有所增加，但增幅并不像加州其他类似城市那么剧烈。 政策含义 如果实施得当，有针对性的威慑策略可以有效应对枪支暴力问题。当司法管辖区准备采取集中威慑时，事先规划至关重要。 战略管理行动，例如维持强大的合作机构网络、制定问责结构和可持续发展计划以及进行前期和持续的问题分析，是必须到位的关键要素，才能使集中威慑有效且可持续。