Less‐than‐certain conditional judgments pose notorious problems for strict analyses of conditionals: across their various incarnations, these analyses have trouble making sense of how conditionals could have non‐trivial probabilities in the first place; minimal constraints on how such probabilities are to be assigned, moreover, lead to results that seem at odds with a strict outlook on the semantics of conditionals, most notably the validity of Conditional Excluded Middle. I demonstrate that a strict analysis can overcome the trouble if couched in a bilateral dynamic setting that properly extends the familiar Ramsey test for accepting conditionals to other iffy attitudes, most importantly the one of rejecting a conditional. The resulting framework accommodates the appeal of Stalnaker's thesis as well as of Conditional Excluded Middle in a strict setting. A discussion of how to handle the probability of epistemically modalized conditionals and of compounds of conditionals is provided.

中文翻译：

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严格条件的凭证


不太确定的条件判断给条件句的严格分析带来了臭名昭著的问题：在它们的各种化身中，这些分析很难理解条件句如何具有不平凡的概率；此外，对如何分配此类概率的最小限制会导致结果似乎与条件句语义的严格观点相矛盾，最明显的是条件排除中间的有效性。我证明，如果在双边动态环境中表达，严格的分析可以克服麻烦，将熟悉的拉姆齐测试接受条件适当地扩展到其他不确定的态度，最重要的是拒绝条件。由此产生的框架在严格的环境下适应了斯塔纳克论文以及条件排除中间的吸引力。讨论了如何处理认知模态条件句和条件句复合的概率。