This article examines trends in organized violence based on new data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP). In 2023, fatalities from organized violence decreased for the first time since the rapid increase observed in 2020, dropping from 310,000 in 2022 to 154,000 in 2023. Despite this decline, these figures represent some of the highest fatality rates recorded since the Rwandan genocide in 1994, surpassed only by those of 2022 and 2021. The decrease was primarily attributed to the end of the conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, which accounted for about 60% of battle-related deaths in both 2022 and 2021. Despite this positive development, the number of active state-based armed conflicts increased by three in 2023, reaching the highest level ever recorded by the UCDP, totaling 59. Non-state conflicts and one-sided violence decreased in 2023 when compared to 2022, evident in both the reduction of the active conflicts/actors and the decrease in fatalities attributed to these forms of violence. However, despite this overall decrease, fatalities resulting from non-state conflicts remained at historically high levels in 2023. Analysis of non-state conflict data spanning the past decade reveals that it comprises the ten most violent years on record. Organized crime groups have predominantly fueled this escalation. Unlike rebel groups, organized crime groups typically lack political goals and are primarily motivated by economic gain. Conflicts between these groups tend to intensify around drug smuggling routes and in urban areas, driven by shifts in alliances and leadership dynamics among the actors.

中文翻译：

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1989-2023 年有组织暴力以及有组织犯罪集团的盛行


本文根据乌普萨拉冲突数据计划 (UCDP) 的新数据探讨了有组织暴力的趋势。 2023 年，有组织暴力造成的死亡人数自 2020 年快速增加以来首次下降，从 2022 年的 310,000 人下降到 2023 年的 154,000 人。尽管有所下降，但这些数字仍是自 1994 年卢旺达种族灭绝以来记录的最高死亡率之一，仅次于 2022 年和 2021 年。这一下降主要归因于埃塞俄比亚提格雷地区冲突的结束，该地区约占 2022 年和 2021 年战斗相关死亡人数的 60%。尽管有这一积极进展，但死亡人数2023 年，活跃的国家武装冲突增加了 3 起，达到 UCDP 有记录以来的最高水平，总数为 59 起。与 2022 年相比，2023 年非国家冲突和片面暴力有所减少，明显体现在冲突/行为者活跃，以及这些形式的暴力造成的死亡人数减少。然而，尽管整体下降，2023 年非国家冲突造成的死亡人数仍处于历史高位。对过去十年非国家冲突数据的分析表明，这是有记录以来暴力最严重的十年。有组织的犯罪集团主要助长了这一升级。与反叛团体不同，有组织犯罪团体通常缺乏政治目标，主要受经济利益驱动。由于行为者之间的联盟和领导动态的变化，这些团体之间的冲突往往会在毒品走私路线周围和城市地区加剧。