This study extends the analytic approach conducted by Watts et al. (2018) to examine the long‐term predictive validity of delay of gratification. Participants (n = 702; 83% White, 46% male) completed the Marshmallow Test at 54 months (1995–1996) and survey measures at age 26 (2017–2018). Using a preregistered analysis, Marshmallow Test performance was not strongly predictive of adult achievement, health, or behavior. Although modest bivariate associations were detected with educational attainment (r = .17) and body mass index (r = −.17), almost all regression‐adjusted coefficients were nonsignificant. No clear pattern of moderation was detected between delay of gratification and either socioeconomic status or sex. Results indicate that Marshmallow Test performance does not reliably predict adult outcomes. The predictive and construct validity of the ability to delay of gratification are discussed.

中文翻译：

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延迟满足和成人结果：棉花糖测试不能可靠地预测成人功能


这项研究扩展了 Watts 等人进行的分析方法。 （2018）检查延迟满足的长期预测有效性。参加者（ n = 702； 83% 白人，46% 男性）在 54 个月（1995-1996）时完成了棉花糖测试，并在 26 岁时（2017-2018）完成了调查测量。使用预先注册的分析，棉花糖测试表现并不能强烈预测成人的成就、健康或行为。尽管检测到与教育程度之间存在适度的双变量关联（ r = .17) 和体重指数 ( r = −.17)，几乎所有回归调整系数都不显着。在延迟满足与社会经济地位或性别之间没有发现明显的节制模式。结果表明，棉花糖测试表现并不能可靠地预测成人的结果。讨论了延迟满足能力的预测和构建有效性。