The Static-99, Static-99R, and STABLE-2007 are internationally well-established instruments for predicting static and dynamic risks of sexual recidivism in individuals convicted of sexual offenses. Previous meta-analyses assessed their predictive and incremental validity, but none has yet compared the two Static versions and the Static-STABLE combinations. Here, we implemented diagnostic test accuracy network meta-analysis (DTA-NMA) to compare all tests and identify optimal cutoffs in one comprehensive analysis. The DTA-NMA included 32 samples comprising 45,224 adult male individuals. More information was available on the Static-99 (22 samples; 34,316 individuals) and the Static-99R (13 samples; 27,243 individuals), compared to the Static-99/STABLE-2007 (three samples; 762 individuals), the Static-99R/STABLE-2007 (two samples; 2,972 individuals), and the STABLE-2007 (three samples; 816 individuals). The primary outcome was the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The secondary outcomes were sensitivity and specificity. Optimal cutoffs were determined using the Youden index. The AUC suggested moderate predictive validity for Static-99 and Static-99R, whereas STABLE-2007 had no predictive value. The optimal cutoff of Static-99R was suggested to have higher specificity than that of Static-99, whereas sensitivity was comparable between instruments. The notion of incremental validity for STABLE-2007 could not be confirmed. This work represents the first meta-analysis to compare Static-99, Static-99R, STABLE-2007, and their combinations in one analysis. Static-99R demonstrated the highest specificity in predicting the risk of sexual recidivism, indicating a potential advantage in detecting true nonrecidivists. The findings are discussed, considering the current recommendations for assessing the risk of sexual recidivism in the criminal justice system. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

中文翻译：

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Static-99、Static-99R 和 STABLE-2007 对性累犯的预测和增量有效性：诊断测试准确性网络荟萃分析 (DTA-NMA)。


Static-99、Static-99R 和 STABLE-2007 是国际公认的工具，用于预测性犯罪罪犯的静态和动态性累犯风险。之前的荟萃分析评估了它们的预测和增量有效性，但尚未比较两个静态版本和静态-稳定组合。在这里，我们实施了诊断测试准确性网络荟萃分析 (DTA-NMA)，以比较所有测试并在一项综合分析中确定最佳截止值。 DTA-NMA 包括 32 个样本，其中包括 45,224 名成年男性个体。与 Static-99/STABLE-2007（三个样本；762 人）相比，Static-99（22 个样本；34,316 人）和 Static-99R（13 个样本；27,243 人）提供了更多信息。 99R/STABLE-2007（两个样本；2,972 人）和 STABLE-2007（三个样本；816 人）。主要结果是受试者工作特征曲线下面积（AUC）。次要结果是敏感性和特异性。使用约登指数确定最佳截止值。 AUC 表明 Static-99 和 Static-99R 的预测有效性中等，而 STABLE-2007 没有预测价值。建议 Static-99R 的最佳截止值比 Static-99 具有更高的特异性，而仪器之间的灵敏度相当。 STABLE-2007 增量有效性的概念无法得到证实。这项工作代表了第一个在一次分析中比较 Static-99、Static-99R、STABLE-2007 及其组合的荟萃分析。 Static-99R 在预测性累犯风险方面表现出最高的特异性，表明在检测真正的非累犯方面具有潜在优势。 考虑到目前评估刑事司法系统中性累犯风险的建议，对调查结果进行了讨论。 （PsycInfo 数据库记录 (c) 2024 APA，保留所有权利）。