The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in drastic changes in people’s living habits. The lockdown, social distancing measures, and the fear of contagion severely impacted the demand for public transportation services. Due to the decline in demand during the pandemic, the financial crisis of the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems in Colombia, similar to other Latin American countries, worsened. This article aims to analyze the pandemic’s impact on Colombia’s seven existing BRT systems by assessing users’ willingness to use the service in a post-pandemic scenario. Data come from an online survey (N = 1,486) in mid-2021, which was used to estimate a hybrid model that assesses future BRT usage intention. Results confirmed that the pandemic had a profound impact on mobility behavior, with a shift away from mass public transportation such as BRT or bus and a substantial increase in the use of single transportation modes, which include cars, motorcycles, cycling, and walking. Intention to continue using BRT service after the pandemic varies between cities and people’s socioeconomic characteristics (i.e. occupation, income, transportation expenditure, and private vehicle ownership). Willingness to use BRT is also influenced by latent variables, including perceptions of contagion risks, service quality before and during the pandemic, and perception of prevention measures implementation. When the virus takes a back seat, the BRT demand is not expected to reach pre-pandemic levels.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19 大流行后，BRT 乘客量会恢复吗？对哥伦比亚的分析


COVID-19大流行导致人们的生活习惯发生巨大变化。封锁、社交距离措施以及对传染的恐惧严重影响了对公共交通服务的需求。由于疫情期间需求下降，与其他拉美国家类似，哥伦比亚快速公交（BRT）系统的财务危机进一步恶化。本文旨在通过评估用户在大流行后情况下使用该服务的意愿，分析大流行对哥伦比亚现有七个 BRT 系统的影响。数据来自 2021 年中期的一项在线调查（N = 1,486），该调查用于估计评估未来 BRT 使用意图的混合模型。结果证实，疫情对出行行为产生了深远影响，人们不再使用 BRT 或公交车等大众公共交通，而是大幅增加了汽车、摩托车、自行车和步行等单一交通方式的使用。疫情过后继续使用 BRT 服务的意愿因城市和人们的社会经济特征（即职业、收入、交通支出和私家车拥有量）而异。使用BRT的意愿还受到潜在变量的影响，包括对传染风险的看法、大流行之前和期间的服务质量以及对预防措施实施的看法。当病毒退居二线时，BRT 需求预计不会达到大流行前的水平。