Increased demands for timber products remove carbon from forests, however previous literature has suggested that higher resulting prices could spur forestland expansion, ameliorating the forest carbon impacts. We examine the impacts on forest carbon from harvest increases with an empirical forest sector model, coupled with an econometric model of endogenous land use change that differentiates the impacts of population, income, and pine plantation rents among forest management types and non-forest land uses. We explore the sensitivity of forest area and carbon to a suite of scenarios by varying timber product demands combined with a sensitivity analysis on pine plantation responses to pine plantation rents. The econometric results show that pine plantation rents lead to increases in pine plantation area and that all non-urban land uses are negatively related to both per capita income and population. Scenario projections show that (1) higher pulpwood demands driven by wood pellets lead to lower forest carbon outcomes; (2) higher sawtimber demands exacerbate the known cycles in sawtimber prices and result in corresponding cycles in forest area and carbon. All scenarios show increases in forest carbon over time, though some scenarios increase faster than others. Within the study period, the highest forest carbon level is achieved by the high sawtimber demand and low pulpwood demand scenario. Long term growth cycles over the course of the projection period, however, lead to alternating forest carbon outcomes, indicating that conclusions about forest carbon depend on the projection length.

中文翻译：

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美国东南部产品需求增加和土地利用变化下的森林碳


对木材产品的需求增加会减少森林中的碳，但之前的文献表明，由此产生的价格上涨可能会刺激林地扩张，从而改善森林碳影响。我们通过实证森林部门模型，结合内生土地利用变化的计量经济学模型，研究了收获增加对森林碳的影响，该模型区分了人口、收入和松树种植园租金对森林管理类型和非林地利用的影响。我们通过改变木材产品需求并结合松树种植园对松树种植园租金反应的敏感性分析，探索森林面积和碳对一系列情景的敏感性。计量经济学结果表明，松树种植园租金导致松树种植面积增加，所有非城市土地利用与人均收入和人口负相关。情景预测表明，(1) 木屑颗粒驱动的纸浆用材需求增加导致森林碳结果降低； (2) 较高的锯材需求加剧了锯材价格的已知周期，并导致森林面积和碳的相应周期。所有情景都显示森林碳随着时间的推移而增加，尽管有些情景比其他情景增加得更快。在研究期间，最高的森林碳水平是通过高锯材需求和低纸浆木材需求情景实现的。然而，预测期内的长期生长周期会导致森林碳结果的交替，这表明有关森林碳的结论取决于预测长度。