This article aims to answer a provocative question: would higher prices, particularly that of milk, be beneficial for the survival of children under 2 years old? Using a database of more than 230,000 births, matched to deaths, we test this hypothesis in the context of a large Mediterranean city, Madrid, in the years 1915–1926. During this period an inflationary crisis spread from 1917 to 1921. We compare child survival, the impact of milk price fluctuations, and the summer mortality peak, controlling for socio-spatial segregation and considering all-cause mortality and mortality due to food- and water-borne illnesses, before, during and after the economic depression. A positive association between increases in the milk price and better chances of survival is statistically robust, but only observed during depression. Several explanations are discussed.

中文翻译：

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1917-21 年的经济萧条是否加速了流行病学的转变？西班牙马德里的牛奶价格、夏季死亡率高峰以及食物和水导致的死亡原因


本文旨在回答一个具有争议性的问题：价格上涨，尤其是牛奶价格上涨，是否有利于 2 岁以下儿童的生存？我们使用包含超过 230,000 名出生人数与死亡人数的数据库，在 1915 年至 1926 年地中海大城市马德里的背景下检验了这一假设。在此期间，通货膨胀危机从 1917 年蔓延至 1921 年。我们比较了儿童生存率、牛奶价格波动的影响和夏季死亡率峰值，控制了社会空间隔离并考虑了全因死亡率和食物和水造成的死亡率-经济萧条之前、期间和之后传播的疾病。牛奶价格上涨与更好的生存机会之间的正相关关系在统计上是强有力的，但仅在抑郁症期间观察到。讨论了几种解释。