Lane changing, recognised as one of the most intricate manoeuvres in road traffic, has attracted extensive scholarly interest. To date, the concept of lane change has been categorised into two distinct classifications, namely mandatory and discretionary. Mandatory lane changes (MLCs) are often regarded as absolute, implying that the possibility of not executing the lane change is frequently disregarded. This paper questions this widely accepted proposition by evaluating the costs of neglecting an MLC. Specifically, we examine the costs associated with not making MLCs for exiting freeways, effectively quantifying the cost of missing such exits. The core of this study involves a dual approach comprising an analytical model for the costs of missing exits alongside an empirical analysis of two GPS datasets from the Minneapolis - St. Paul metropolitan area. The performance of the analytical model is validated by cross-referencing it against exit-missing costs from the top 50 metropolitan areas in the US. Regarding the empirical study, it was found that while both time and distance costs are associated with missing exits, the magnitudes of these costs are not substantial. The results obtained in this study offer novel insights into the nature of MLC, and we argue that future models should consist of discretionary (DLC), mandatory (MLC), and (ELC) lane changes. Moreover, the analytical model developed in this study can be integrated into the trade-off function of an ELC model, enabling drivers to bypass their intended exit when needed.

中文翻译：

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“强制”变道有多强制？关于错过高速公路出口成本的分析和实验研究


变道被认为是道路交通中最复杂的操作之一，引起了广泛的学术兴趣。迄今为止，变道的概念已分为两种不同的类别，即强制变道和自主变道。强制变道（MLC）通常被认为是绝对的，这意味着不执行变道的可能性经常被忽视。本文通过评估忽视 MLC 的成本来质疑这一广泛接受的主张。具体来说，我们研究了与不为高速公路出口制作 MLC 相关的成本，从而有效地量化了错过此类出口的成本。这项研究的核心涉及双重方法，包括错过出口成本的分析模型以及对明尼阿波利斯-圣保罗大都市区的两个 GPS 数据集的实证分析。通过将分析模型与美国前 50 个大都市区的出口缺失成本进行交叉引用，验证了分析模型的性能。实证研究发现，虽然时间和距离成本都与错过出口有关，但这些成本的幅度并不大。本研究获得的结果为 MLC 的本质提供了新颖的见解，我们认为未来的模型应包括自主（DLC）、强制（MLC）和（ELC）车道变更。此外，本研究中开发的分析模型可以集成到 ELC 模型的权衡函数中，使驾驶员能够在需要时绕过其预期出口。