Migration inherently embodies uncertainty and dynamism, eluding precise conceptualization, definition and measurement. Embedded within intricate migration driver environments and shaped by the diverse agency of actors involved—prospective migrants, intermediaries and policymakers—migration defies easy prediction and effective policy response. This inherent complexity within international migration flows poses immediate and long‐term governance challenges. This paper delves into the impact of migration‐related uncertainty on European migration governance. We scrutinize how uncertainty shapes migration policy responses and investigate the roles of key actors in assessing and communicating various facets of migration‐related uncertainty. Employing illustrative cases—the Syrian refugee situation and environmentally induced migration—we uncover how uncertainty influences European migration governance and policymaking. Our study sheds light on the interplay between migration uncertainty and governance processes. The findings emphasize the need for nuanced policy approaches to navigate the complexities inherent in international migration processes.

中文翻译：

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不确定性背景下的欧洲移民治理


移民本质上体现了不确定性和活力，难以精确的概念化、定义和测量。移民嵌入错综复杂的移民驱动环境中，并由不同的参与者机构（潜在移民、中介机构和政策制定者）​​塑造，难以轻易预测和有效的政策反应。国际移民流动固有的复杂性给治理带来了直接和长期的挑战。本文深入研究了与移民相关的不确定性对欧洲移民治理的影响。我们仔细研究不确定性如何影响移民政策反应，并调查关键参与者在评估和沟通与移民相关的不确定性的各个方面的作用。通过叙利亚难民状况和环境引起的移民等说明性案例，我们揭示了不确定性如何影响欧洲移民治理和政策制定。我们的研究揭示了移民不确定性与治理流程之间的相互作用。研究结果强调需要采取细致入微的政策方法来应对国际移民进程固有的复杂性。