As the climate warms, the consequent moistening of the atmosphere increases extreme precipitation. Precipitation variability should also increase, producing larger wet-dry swings, but that is yet to be confirmed observationally. Here we show that precipitation variability has already grown globally (over 75% of land area) over the past century, as a result of accumulated anthropogenic warming. The increased variability is seen across daily to intraseasonal timescales, with daily variability increased by 1.2% per 10 years globally, and is particularly prominent over Europe, Australia, and eastern North America. Increased precipitation variability is driven mainly by thermodynamics linked to atmospheric moistening, modulated at decadal timescales by circulation changes. Amplified precipitation variability poses new challenges for weather and climate predictions, as well as for resilience and adaptation by societies and ecosystems.

中文翻译：

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过去一个世纪降水变化的人为放大


随着气候变暖，随之而来的大气湿润增加了极端降水。降水变化也会增加，产生更大的干湿波动，但这尚未得到观测证实。在这里，我们表明，由于人为变暖的累积，过去一个世纪以来，全球降水量变化已经扩大（超过陆地面积的 75%）。从每日到季节内的时间尺度，变化都在增加，全球每日变化每 10 年增加 1.2%，在欧洲、澳大利亚和北美东部尤为突出。降水变化的增加主要是由与大气湿润相关的热力学驱动的，并通过环流变化在十年时间尺度上进行调节。降水变率的加剧给天气和气候预测以及社会和生态系统的恢复力和适应带来了新的挑战。