Climate change threatens the role of European forests as a long-term carbon sink. Assisted migration aims to increase the resilience of forest tree populations to climate change, using species-specific climatic limits and local adaptations through transferring seed provenances. We modelled assisted migration scenarios for seven main European tree species and analysed the effects of species and seed provenance selection, accounting for environmental and genetic variations, on the annual above-ground carbon sink of regrowing juvenile forests. To increase forest resilience, coniferous trees need to be replaced by deciduous species over large parts of their distribution. If local seed provenances are used, this would result in a decrease of the current carbon sink (40 TgC yr⁻¹) by 34–41% by 2061–2080. However, if seed provenances adapted to future climates are used, current sinks could be maintained or even increased to 48–60 TgC yr⁻¹.

气候变化威胁着欧洲森林作为长期碳汇的作用。辅助迁移旨在通过转移种子来源，利用物种特定的气候限制和当地适应能力，提高林木种群对气候变化的适应能力。我们对欧洲七种主要树种的辅助迁移情景进行了建模，并分析了物种和种子来源选择（考虑环境和遗传变异）对再生幼林年度地上碳汇的影响。为了提高森林的恢复力，针叶树的大部分分布区域需要被落叶树种取代。如果使用当地种子来源，到2061年至2080年，这将导致当前碳汇（40 TgC yr ^-1 ）减少34-41%。然而，如果使用适应未来气候的种子来源，当前的汇可以维持甚至增加到 48-60 TgC yr ^-1 。