The deep ocean, a vast thermal reservoir, absorbs excess heat under greenhouse warming, which ultimately regulates the Earth’s surface climate. Even if CO₂ emissions are successfully reduced, the stored heat will gradually be released, resulting in a particular pattern of ocean warming. Here, we show that deep ocean warming will lead to El Niño-like ocean warming and resultant increased precipitation in the tropical eastern Pacific with southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone. Consequently, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation shifts eastward, intensifying Eastern Pacific El Niño events. In particular, the deep ocean warming could increase convective extreme El Niño events by 40 to 80% relative to the current climate. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic greenhouse warming will have a prolonged impact on El Niño variability through delayed deep ocean warming, even if CO₂ stabilization is achieved.

深海是一个巨大的热库，在温室变暖的情况下吸收多余的热量，最终调节地球表面的气候。即使CO ₂排放量成功减少，储存的热量也会逐渐释放，导致海洋变暖的特殊模式。在这里，我们表明，深海变暖将导致类似厄尔尼诺的海洋变暖，并导致热带东太平洋降水增加，同时热带辐合带南移。因此，厄尔尼诺-南方涛动东移，东太平洋厄尔尼诺事件加剧。特别是，深海变暖可能会使对流极端厄尔尼诺事件相对于当前气候增加 40% 至 80%。我们的研究结果表明，即使实现了CO ₂稳定，人为温室变暖也将通过延迟深海变暖对厄尔尼诺现象产生长期影响。