On March 23, 2020, the United Kingdom went into national lockdown to stop the spread of COVID-19. In this paper, we examine whether a policy aimed at minimizing the health consequences of the pandemic had unintended negative consequences for domestic abuse. Using data from the Metropolitan Police in England we estimate the impact of lockdown on domestic abuse in the 32 boroughs that make up the London metropolitan area. Using a before and after approach, and controlling for other factors, we show an increase in the probability of being a victim of domestic abuse during lockdown similar in magnitude to the increase experienced over the Christmas holidays. However, the overall picture masks inequalities across groups: with women, younger and older people, and people of Asian, Arab, and Middle Eastern ethnicity subject to the highest increases, reflecting vulnerabilities and existing inequalities. Of the domestic abuse-related crimes, it is the most violent crimes that saw the greatest increases during lockdown. Once lockdown restrictions are eased, rates decline but remain slightly higher than prior to lockdown up to 3 months later. The results present a clear message for policy makers: a policy adopted to alleviate one problem, even in times of crisis, must factor in the impact this may have in other areas. Failure to do so in this situation, despite existing evidence linking domestic abuse to stress, confinement, and crisis situations prior to lockdown, has resulted in an increase in domestic violence in the U.K.’s capital city, during lockdown and beyond.

中文翻译：

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首次 COVID-19 全国封锁是否导致英国首都伦敦的家庭暴力增加？


2020 年 3 月 23 日，英国进入全国封锁状态，以阻止 COVID-19 的传播。在本文中，我们研究了旨在最大限度地减少大流行对健康造成的影响的政策是否对家庭暴力产生了意想不到的负面影响。我们利用英国大都会警察局的数据估算了封锁对构成伦敦都市区的 32 个行政区的家庭暴力的影响。使用之前和之后的方法，并控制其他因素，我们发现在封锁期间成为家庭暴力受害者的可能性有所增加，其幅度与圣诞节假期期间经历的增加相似。然而，总体情况掩盖了不同群体之间的不平等：妇女、年轻人和老年人以及亚洲、阿拉伯和中东族裔的增幅最高，反映了脆弱性和现有的不平等。在与家庭暴力相关的犯罪中，最暴力的犯罪在封锁期间增幅最大。一旦放松封锁限制，利率就会下降，但在 3 个月后仍略高于封锁前。研究结果向政策制定者传达了一个明确的信息：即使在危机时期，为缓解某一问题而采取的政策也必须考虑到这一问题可能对其他领域产生的影响。尽管现有证据表明家庭暴力与封锁前的压力、限制和危机情况有关，但在这种情况下如果不这样做，就会导致英国首都在封锁期间及之后的家庭暴力增加。