Upwelling along oceanic eastern boundaries has attracted significant attention due to its profound effects on ocean productivity and associated biological and socioeconomic implications. However, uncertainty persists regarding the evolution of coastal upwelling with climate change, particularly its impact on future biological production. Here, using a series of state-of-the-art climate models, we identify a significant seasonal advancement and prolonged duration of upwelling in major upwelling systems. Nevertheless, the upwelling intensity (total volume of upwelled water) exhibits complex changes in the future. In the North Pacific, the upwelling is expected to attenuate, albeit with a minor magnitude. Conversely, in other basins, coastal upwelling diminishes significantly in equatorward regions but displays a slight decline or even an enhancement at higher latitudes. The climate simulations also reveal a robust connection between changes in upwelling intensity and net primary production, highlighting the crucial impact of future coastal upwelling alterations on marine ecosystems.

沿着海洋东部边界的上升流因其对海洋生产力的深远影响以及相关的生物和社会经济影响而引起了人们的广泛关注。然而，随着气候变化，沿海上升流的演变仍然存在不确定性，特别是其对未来生物生产的影响。在这里，使用一系列最先进的气候模型，我们确定了主要上升流系统中显着的季节性提前和上升流持续时间延长。然而，未来上升流强度（上升水总量）将呈现复杂的变化。在北太平洋，上升流预计将减弱，尽管幅度较小。相反，在其他盆地，赤道地区沿海上升流显着减弱，但在高纬度地区则略有下降甚至增强。气候模拟还揭示了上升流强度的变化与净初级生产力之间的密切联系，强调了未来沿海上升流变化对海洋生态系统的关键影响。