There is less consensus on whether human activities have significantly altered tropical cyclone (TC) statistics, given the relatively short duration of reliable observed records. Understanding and projecting TC frequency change is more challenging in certain coastal regions with lower TC activity yet high exposure, such as Western Europe. Here, we show, with large-ensemble simulations, that the observed increase in TC frequency near Western Europe from 1966 to 2020 is likely linked to the anthropogenic aerosol effect. Under a future scenario featuring regionally controlled aerosol emissions and substantially increased greenhouse gas concentrations (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-85), our simulations show a potential decrease in TC frequency near Western Europe by the end of the 21st century. These contrasting trends in historical and future TC frequencies are primarily due to the rise for 1966–2020 and potentially subsequent fall for 2030–2100 in TC genesis frequency in the North Atlantic. The response of large-scale environmental conditions to anthropogenic forcing is found to be crucial in explaining the historical and future changes in TC frequency near Western Europe.

鉴于可靠观测记录持续时间相对较短，关于人类活动是否显着改变热带气旋（TC）统计数据的共识较少。在某些热带气旋活动较低但暴露程度较高的沿海地区（例如西欧），了解和预测热带气旋频率变化更具挑战性。在这里，我们通过大型集合模拟表明，从 1966 年到 2020 年观察到的西欧附近 TC 频率的增加可能与人为气溶胶效应有关。在未来气溶胶排放受区域控制和温室气体浓度大幅增加的情景下（共享社会经济路径 5-85），我们的模拟显示，到 21 世纪末，西欧附近的 TC 频率可能会下降。历史和未来 TC 频率的这些对比趋势主要是由于 1966-2020 年北大西洋 TC 生成频率的上升以及随后 2030-2100 年可能的下降。人们发现，大规模环境条件对人为强迫的响应对于解释西欧附近TC频率的历史和未来变化至关重要。