IntroductionCoastal erosion is widely distributed globally, with sandy coasts being particularly prominent, causing significant economic losses to coastal areas. This study focuses on the coastal areas of Liaoning Province, China, which represent typical sandy beach erosion.MethodsBased on the assessment of coastal erosion disaster losses, a multivariate variable-weight combination prediction model is utilized to predict the losses caused by coastal erosion disasters, providing an effective mathematical modeling approach for predicting such losses. Furthermore, the cluster analysis method is employed to delineate vulnerability risk zones for coastal erosion along the Liaoning Province coast.Results and discussionThe research findings indicate the following: (1) From 2023 to 2025, the losses due to coastal erosion disasters in Liaoning Province are projected to decrease significantly from a scale of 36 million RMB yuan to 5 million RMB yuan; (2) Based on the magnitude of disaster vulnerability risk, the coastal areas of Liaoning Province are categorized into four risk zones: high-risk zones (Jinzhou District), moderately high-risk zones (Zhuanghe City, Wafangdian City, Ganjingzi District), medium-risk zones (Lvshunkou District, Bayuquan), and low-risk zones (Gaizhou City, Suizhong County, Xingcheng City). Recommendations are proposed accordingly: (1) Effective measures should be implemented to mitigate the losses incurred by coastal erosion on land, buildings, infrastructure, agricultural output; (2) In the selection of disaster prevention and control measures,economic factors should be carefully considered in line with the specific circumstances of the losses. Specifically, the economic efficiency of disaster prevention and mitigation measures should be taken into account; (3) Precise efforts should be made to implement coastal erosion disaster prevention and control measures in different regions.

中文翻译：

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海岸侵蚀灾害经济损失预测及脆弱性风险区划研究——以辽宁省为例


引言海岸侵蚀在全球范围内广泛分布，其中沙质海岸尤为突出，给沿海地区造成重大经济损失。本研究以我国辽宁省沿海地区为代表的典型沙滩侵蚀地区。方法在海岸侵蚀灾害损失评估的基础上，采用多元变权组合预测模型对海岸侵蚀灾害造成的损失进行预测。为预测此类损失提供有效的数学建模方法。进一步采用聚类分析方法，圈定了辽宁省沿海海岸侵蚀脆弱性风险区。 结果与讨论 研究结果表明：（1）2023年至2025年，辽宁省海岸侵蚀灾害损失为预计规模由3600万元大幅下降至500万元； （2）根据灾害脆弱性风险大小，将辽宁省沿海地区划分为4个风险区：高风险区（锦州区）、中高风险区（庄河市、瓦房店市、甘井子区）、中风险区（旅顺口区、鲅鱼圈）、低风险区（盖州市、绥中县、兴城市）。据此提出建议：（1）采取有效措施，减轻海岸侵蚀对土地、建筑物、基础设施、农业产出造成的损失； (2)在选择灾害防治措施时,应结合损失的具体情况,认真考虑经济因素。 具体而言，应考虑防灾减灾措施的经济效益； （三）分区精准落实海岸侵蚀灾害防治措施。