This study analyzes the relationship between migration and inflation as well as the intervening role of interest rates in selected OECD countries from 1995 to 2020, covering periods of turbulence and tranquillity. The study finds that migration increases inflation in the short run but lowers it in the long run. In other words, the inflationary effect of migration is a long‐run phenomenon. Additionally, we find that the high interest rates help mitigate the inflationary effect of migration in the short run relative to the low interest rates. Moreover, additional analysis using the panel threshold technique further lends credence to the mediating role of interest rates in the nexus, thus making our results robust to alternative estimation techniques. These findings have significant implications for policymakers responsible for managing inflation.

中文翻译：

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高利率和低利率环境下的移民与通胀关系：一些面板数据证据


本研究分析了 1995 年至 2020 年选定的 OECD 国家的移民与通货膨胀之间的关系以及利率的干预作用，涵盖了动荡和平静时期。研究发现，移民在短期内会增加通货膨胀，但从长期来看会降低通货膨胀。换句话说，移民的通货膨胀效应是一个长期现象。此外，我们发现相对于低利率，高利率有助于在短期内减轻移民的通胀影响。此外，使用面板阈值技术的额外分析进一步证实了利率在关系中的中介作用，从而使我们的结果对其他估计技术具有稳健性。这些发现对于负责管理通胀的政策制定者具有重大意义。