Between 2010 and 2019, the global number of forcibly displaced individuals doubled, prompting countries to sign migration deals. Under these agreements, transit or origin countries halt migrants in exchange for support. The 2017 Italy–Libya deal outsourced search and rescue operations in the Central Mediterranean to the Libyan Coast Guard (LCG), aiming to stop migrants from reaching Italy. Using a spatial difference-in-differences design, we find an increase in the probability of observing a deadly incident in areas patrolled by the LCG post-deal. Descriptive evidence suggests a shift in routes, diverting a significant portion of migration to the Western Mediterranean Route.

中文翻译：

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海上救援行动外部化：意大利和利比亚之间的移民协议


2010年至2019年间，全球被迫流离失所的人数翻了一番，促使各国签署移民协议。根据这些协议，过境国或原籍国阻止移民以换取支持。 2017 年意大利与利比亚达成协议，将地中海中部的搜救行动外包给利比亚海岸警卫队 (LCG)，旨在阻止移民抵达意大利。使用空间双重差异设计，我们发现在交易后 LCG 巡逻的区域观察到致命事件的可能性有所增加。描述性证据表明路线发生了变化，将很大一部分移民转向了西地中海路线。