Understanding the behaviors of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity under the CO₂ removal scenario is important for future climate adaptation and policy making. Based on the idealized CO₂ ramp-up (from 284.7 to 1,138.8 ppm) and symmetric ramp-down experiments, our results suggest an asymmetric and irreversible response of TC potential intensity to CO₂ reduction. Potential intensity shows an additional enhancement at the same CO₂ level during the CO₂ ramp-down relative to the ramp-up periods (though with regional differences), and does not completely return to the initial value even when CO₂ recovers on multi-decadal to centennial timescale. The enhanced potential intensity is dominated by the increased thermodynamic disequilibrium, which is mainly attributed to the weakened surface winds arising from the El Niño-like warming pattern and inter-hemispheric ocean temperature contrast. Our results highlight the potential risks of stronger storms on the socioeconomic development under the negative carbon emissions pathways.

中文翻译：

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热带气旋势强度对 CO2 去除的不对称和不可逆响应


了解 CO ₂ 去除情景下热带气旋 (TC) 强度的行为对于未来的气候适应和政策制定非常重要。基于理想化的 CO ₂ 上升（从 284.7 至 1,138.8 ppm）和对称下降实验，我们的结果表明 TC 电势强度对 CO ₂ 存在不对称且不可逆的响应减少。相对于上升期，在 CO ₂ 下降期间，在相同的 CO ₂ 水平下，电位强度显示出额外的增强（尽管存在区域差异），并且不会完全恢复即使 CO ₂ 在几十年到百年的时间尺度上恢复到初始值。潜在强度的增强主要是由于热力学不平衡的增加，这主要是由于类厄尔尼诺变暖模式和半球间海洋温度对比引起的表面风减弱所致。我们的研究结果凸显了负碳排放路径下更强风暴对社会经济发展的潜在风险。