Hurricanes are one of several forms of extreme weather event that will increase in intensity under climate change. Hurricanes generate high winds and high waves, which affect ocean circulation patterns. Writing in Global Change Biology, Dobbelaere et al. explore how these currents might affect the dispersal of coral larvae and the spread of coral disease. The authors used a coupled ocean current–wave model to simulate hydrodynamic conditions across the Florida Coastal Reef before and after Hurricane Irma, which hit the area in September 2017. Inputting these simulations into a biophysical model of coral larval movement after hypothetical spawning events, they find that the passage of the hurricane increased the chance of long-distance dispersal events. Long-distance dispersal could benefit corals by promoting gene exchange and opportunities for coral establishment. But Dobbelaere and colleagues’ simulations suggest that in this instance only a few reefs were likely to benefit from this enhanced connectivity, and most reefs saw a decline or disappearance of larval supply. The authors speculate that for many locations in this system larvae were transported to areas without coral reefs, or that the greater distance transported came at the expense of fewer larvae successfully settling. When the authors included simulations of dispersal of the causative agent of stony coral tissue loss disease, they found that the hurricane helped the disease to propagate further and affect more reefs, which corroborates empirical findings of greater disease presence in the reef system after the hurricane. The authors discuss how the short but intense impacts of hurricanes may interact with long-term effects of global warming on coral connectivity and disease.

Original reference: Glob. Change Biol. 30, e17382 (2024)

飓风是几种极端天气事件之一，在气候变化的情况下，其强度会增加。飓风产生强风和巨浪，影响海洋环流模式。 Dobbelaere 等人在《全球变化生物学》中撰写文章。探索这些洋流如何影响珊瑚幼虫的扩散和珊瑚疾病的传播。作者使用洋流-波浪耦合模型来模拟 2017 年 9 月飓风艾尔玛袭击佛罗里达州沿海珊瑚礁前后的水动力条件。将这些模拟输入到假设产卵事件后珊瑚幼虫运动的生物物理模型中，他们发现飓风的通过增加了长距离扩散事件的机会。长距离扩散可以通过促进基因交换和珊瑚建立的机会来使珊瑚受益。但Dobbelaere和同事的模拟表明，在这种情况下，只有少数珊瑚礁可能从这种增强的连通性中受益，而大多数珊瑚礁的幼虫供应减少或消失。作者推测，在该系统的许多地点，幼虫被运送到没有珊瑚礁的地区，或者运送距离越远，代价是成功定居的幼虫就越少。当作者对石珊瑚组织损失病病原体的扩散进行模拟时，他们发现飓风帮助该疾病进一步传播并影响更多的珊瑚礁，这证实了飓风后珊瑚礁系统中存在更多疾病的经验发现。作者讨论了飓风短暂但强烈的影响如何与全球变暖对珊瑚连通性和疾病的长期影响相互作用。

原文参考： Glob.改变生物。 30 、e17382 (2024)