The modern business cycle features long expansions combined with short recessions, and is thus related to the emergence of sustained economic growth. It also features significant international co-movement, and is therefore associated with growing market integration and globalisation. When did these patterns first appear? This paper explores the changing nature of the business cycle using historical national accounts for nine European economies between 1300 and 2000. For the sample as a whole, the modern business cycle emerged in the nineteenth century.

中文翻译：

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1300-2000 年欧洲商业周期和经济增长


现代商业周期的特点是长期扩张与短期衰退相结合，因此与持续经济增长的出现有关。它还具有重要的国际合作功能，因此与不断增长的市场整合和全球化有关。这些模式是什么时候首次出现的？本文使用 1300 年至 2000 年间 9 个欧洲经济体的历史国民账户探讨了商业周期的变化性质。就整个样本而言，现代商业周期出现在 19 世纪。