Equine Infectious Anemia (EIA) is a vector-borne persistent viral infection in equine animals. The EIA is characterized by recurrent fever, thrombocytopenia, depression, anemia, rapid weight loss, and lower body edema. Control of EIA is achieved through the elimination or isolation of infected animals, resulting in significant economic losses. In recent years, many countries in Europe have experienced outbreaks of EIA, which could potentially develop into a new wave of epidemic and pose a significant threat to the healthy development of the equine industry. This study utilized spatiotemporal analysis techniques and ecological niche modeling to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of historical EIA outbreaks and predict risk areas for EIA occurrence in Europe. Spatiotemporal analysis results indicate that from 2005 to 2023, the EIA outbreaks in Europe exhibit five significant spatiotemporal clusters, with hotspots concentrated in southeastern France and northwestern Italy. Ecological niche modeling reveals that western, central, and southern Europe are high-risk areas for EIA outbreaks. Annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and horse density are important variables that influence the occurrence of EIA. The results of this study can provide decision-makers with valuable insights, helping with EIA monitoring and resource allocation.

中文翻译：

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欧洲马传染性贫血的时空分析及风险区域预测


马传染性贫血 (EIA) 是马科动物中媒介传播的持续性病毒感染。 EIA的特点是反复发热、血小板减少、抑郁、贫血、体重快速下降和下半身水肿。 EIA的控制是通过消除或隔离受感染的动物来实现的，从而造成重大的经济损失。近年来，欧洲多国爆发环评疫情，有可能发展成新一波疫情，对马业健康发展构成重大威胁。本研究利用时空分析技术和生态位模型来研究历史EIA爆发的时空分布特征并预测欧洲EIA发生的风险区域。时空分析结果表明，2005年至2023年，欧洲EIA疫情呈现出5个显着的时空集群，热点集中在法国东南部和意大利西北部。生态位模型显示，西欧、中欧和南欧是EIA爆发的高风险地区。年平均气温、年降水量、马匹密度是影响EIA发生的重要变量。这项研究的结果可以为决策者提供有价值的见解，有助于环评监测和资源配置。