Under anthropogenic warming, future changes to climate variability beyond specific modes such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have not been well-characterized. In the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE) climate model, the future change to sea surface temperature (SST) variability (and correspondingly marine heatwave intensity) on monthly timescales and longer is spatially heterogeneous. We examined these projected changes (between 1960–2000 and 2060–2100) in the North Pacific using a local linear stochastic-deterministic model, which allowed us to quantify the effect of changes to three drivers on SST variability: ocean “memory” (the SST damping timescale), ENSO teleconnections, and stochastic noise forcing. The ocean memory declines in most areas, but lengthens in the central North Pacific. This change is primarily due to changes in air-sea feedbacks and ocean damping, with the shallowing mixed layer depth playing a secondary role. An eastward shift of the ENSO teleconnection pattern is primarily responsible for the pattern of SST variance change.

在人为变暖的情况下，除厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）等特定模式之外的未来气候变化变化尚未得到很好的描述。在社区地球系统模型版本 2 大型集合 (CESM2-LE) 气候模型中，未来海面温度 (SST) 变化（以及相应的海洋热浪强度）在每月时间尺度和更长时间内的变化在空间上是异质的。我们使用局部线性随机确定性模型检查了北太平洋的这些预计变化（1960-2000 年和 2060-2100 年之间），该模型使我们能够量化三个驱动因素的变化对海表温度变化的影响：海洋“记忆”（ SST 阻尼时间尺度）、ENSO 遥相关和随机噪声强迫。大多数地区的海洋记忆都会减弱，但北太平洋中部的海洋记忆会延长。这种变化主要是由于海气反馈和海洋阻尼的变化造成的，混合层深度变浅是次要的。 ENSO 遥相关模式的东移是海温方差变化模式的主要原因。