Few studies have assessed a comprehensive understanding of how the seasonal and interannual variability and trends of the surface mass balance (SMB), including the influence of atmospheric river (ARs), are governed by the climate on the South Shetland Islands (SSI) glaciers located in the northerly Antarctic Peninsula (AP). To address this gap, we comprehensively analyzed the correlations and regressions between seasonal and annual SMB with regional to global climate indices and a state-of-the-art AR tracking database from 1980 to 2019. The daily and monthly SMB was obtained from two physical glaciological models, which was verified against 19 years of annual and seasonal glacier-wide SMB observations available in three glaciers (Johnsons, Hurd, and Bellingshausen), showing a good ability to capture interannual and seasonal variability. Results indicate a low dependence of the SMB on main atmospheric modes of variability (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode), and a moderate dependence on regional climate indices based on atmospheric pressure anomalies and sea surface temperature anomalies over the Drake Passage. Furthermore, our findings reveal that ARs have different effects on the SMB depending on the season. For example, winter ARs tend to boost accumulation due to increased snowfall, while summer ARs tend to intensify surface melting due to increased sensible heat flux. Our study highlights the Drake Passage as a key region that has the potential to influence the interannual and seasonal variability of the SMB and other climate variables, such as air temperature and snowfall over the SSI. We suggest that future work should consider this region to better understand the past, present and future climate changes on the SSI and surrounding areas.

中文翻译：

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关于南极半岛北部南设得兰群岛冰川年际表面质量平衡变化的新见解


很少有研究全面了解地表质量平衡 (SMB) 的季节和年际变率和趋势，包括大气河 (AR) 的影响，是如何受位于南设得兰群岛 (SSI) 冰川的气候控制的。位于南极半岛北部（AP）。为了解决这一差距，我们全面分析了 1980 年至 2019 年季节性和年度 SMB 与区域到全球气候指数以及最先进的 AR 跟踪数据库之间的相关性和回归。每日和每月 SMB 是从两个物理数据中获得的冰川学模型，根据三个冰川（约翰逊冰川、赫德冰川和别林斯高晋冰川）19 年的年度和季节性冰川范围 SMB 观测进行了验证，显示出捕捉年际和季节变化的良好能力。结果表明，SMB 对主要大气变率模式（例如厄尔尼诺南方涛动和南方环模）的依赖性较低，对基于德雷克河上空气压异常和海面温度异常的区域气候指数的依赖性中等通道。此外，我们的研究结果表明，AR 对 SMB 的影响因季节而异。例如，冬季 AR 往往会因降雪量增加而促进积雪，而夏季 AR 往往会因感热通量增加而加剧地表融化。我们的研究强调德雷克海峡是一个关键区域，有可能影响 SMB 的年际和季节变化以及其他气候变量，例如 SSI 的气温和降雪。 我们建议未来的工作应考虑该地区，以更好地了解SSI及周边地区过去、现在和未来的气候变化。