In the face of a multiplicity of crises – including land cover change, climate hazards, economic uncertainties, social injustice, adaptation and sustainability concerns, relevant stakeholders have taken stern initiatives to avert these phenomena that continuously grow in magnitude and relevance. We investigate the driving mechanisms of land use cover change, across Africa’s sub-regions using integrated remote sensing techniques and existing literature. Modules for Land Use Change Evaluation (MOLUSCE) and ANN-CA were utilized to simulate land use scenarios (2020–2050) in Africa. Fundamental drift in land use systems was found to be driven by an array of socio-political, economic and biophysical factors. Interestingly, land use and recover change (LURC) patterns were observed in the north and west African regions. A regrowth/greening in forests (+2.67 %) and a decline in deserts/barren areas (-16.62 %), grasslands (-16.58 %) and farmlands/shrubs (-12.88 %) can be observed during the last 40 years. Conversely, massive shifts in built-up (+216.52 %) and areas covered by waterbodies (+84.44 %) can be spotted. Predicted trends for natural vegetation estimate 1.69 % and 2.92 % reduction rates annually for forests and grasslands, respectively, over the next 30 years. The piecemeal of evidence provided shows more lands will be converted into built-environment and cultivated lands. Based on these premises, we propose a ‘4R value strategy’ that unifies actions, addresses resource-related conflicts and the drivers identified, amid sustainability concerns. The study’s standpoints prompt the decisions of governments, the scientific community and interested parties to create alternative futures by tackling prevailing trends which aggravate environmental degradation and poverty.

中文翻译：

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非洲土地利用系统发展的荟萃分析：轨迹、影响、适应能力和未来动态


面对包括土地覆盖变化、气候灾害、经济不确定性、社会不公正、适应和可持续性问题在内的多重危机，相关利益攸关方采取了严厉举措，以避免这些现象的严重程度和相关性不断增加。我们利用综合遥感技术和现有文献研究非洲次区域土地利用覆盖变化的驱动机制。利用土地利用变化评估模块 (MOLUSCE) 和 ANN-CA 来模拟非洲的土地利用情景（2020-2050 年）。研究发现，土地利用系统的基本漂移是由一系列社会政治、经济和生物物理因素驱动的。有趣的是，在北非和西非地区观察到了土地利用和恢复变化（LURC）模式。在过去 40 年中，可以观察到森林的再生/绿化（+2.67%）以及沙漠/贫瘠地区（-16.62%）、草原（-16.58%）和农田/灌木（-12.88%）的减少。相反，可以发现建筑群（+216.52%）和水体覆盖区域（+84.44%）的巨大变化。预计未来 30 年，森林和草原的自然植被每年减少率分别为 1.69% 和 2.92%。所提供的零碎证据表明，更多的土地将被转变为建筑环境和耕地。基于这些前提，我们提出了“4R价值战略”，该战略在可持续发展问题中统一行动、解决与资源相关的冲突和已确定的驱动因素。该研究的观点促使各国政府、科学界和有关各方做出决定，通过应对加剧环境退化和贫困的普遍趋势来创造替代的未来。