What are credences? Where do the numbers come from? Some have argued that they are brute and primitive; others, that they model our dispositions to bet, our comparative confidence judgments, or our all‐out beliefs. This paper explores a new answer to this question: credences model our dispositions to guess. I argue that we can think of credences this way, and then consider: should we?

中文翻译：

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可信度可以模拟猜测吗？


什么是信用？数字从哪里来？有些人认为它们是野蛮和原始的；其他人则认为它们模仿了我们的下注倾向、我们的相对信心判断或我们全力以赴的信念。本文探讨了这个问题的新答案：信用模型模拟了我们的猜测倾向。我认为我们可以这样思考信任，然后考虑：我们应该吗？