In recent years, flood risk in urban areas has been rapidly increasing due to unsustainable urban development, changes of hydrological processes and frequent occurrence of extreme weather events. Flood risk assessment should realistically take into account the complex interactions between human and natural systems to better inform risk management and improve resilience. In this study, we propose a novel Coupled Human And Natural Systems (CHANS) modeling framework to capture the intricate interactive human behaviors and flooding process at a high spatial resolution. The new CHANS modeling framework integrates a high-performance hydrodynamic model with an agent-based model to simulate the complex responses of individual households to the evolving flood conditions, leveraging the computing power of graphics processing units (GPUs) to achieve real-time simulation. The framework is applied to reproduce the 2015 Desmond flood in the 2,500 km² Eden Catchment in England, demonstrating its ability to predict interactive flood-human dynamics and assess flood impact at the household-level. The study also further explores the effectiveness of different flood risk management strategies, including the provision of early warning and distribution of sandbags, in mitigating flood impact. The new CHANS model potentially provides a useful tool for understanding short-term human behaviors and their impact on flood risk during a flood event, which is important for the development of effective disaster risk management plans.

中文翻译：

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用于洪水风险评估和减少的高性能人与自然系统耦合 (CHANS) 模型


近年来，由于城市发展不可持续、水文过程变化、极端天气事件频发，城市洪涝风险迅速增加。洪水风险评估应切实考虑人类与自然系统之间复杂的相互作用，以更好地为风险管理提供信息并提高抵御能力。在这项研究中，我们提出了一种新颖的人类与自然系统耦合（CHANS）建模框架，以高空间分辨率捕获复杂的交互式人类行为和洪水过程。新的 CHANS 建模框架将高性能水动力模型与基于代理的模型相结合，模拟各个家庭对不断变化的洪水条件的复杂响应，利用图形处理单元 (GPU) 的计算能力实现实时模拟。该框架用于重现 2015 年英国伊甸园流域 2,500 公里的德斯蒙德洪水，展示了其预测洪水与人类互动动态并评估家庭层面洪水影响的能力。该研究还进一步探讨了不同洪水风险管理策略（包括提供预警和分发沙袋）在减轻洪水影响方面的有效性。新的 CHANS 模型可能为了解洪水事件期间人类的短期行为及其对洪水风险的影响提供了一个有用的工具，这对于制定有效的灾害风险管理计划非常重要。