Abstract. Global-mean surface temperature rapidly increased 0.27 ± 0.05 K from 2022 to 2023. Such an interannual global warming spike is not unprecedented in the observational record with previous instances occurring in 1956–57 and 1976–77. However, why global warming spikes occur is unknown and the rapid global warming of 2023 has led to concerns that it could have been externally driven. Here we show that climate models that are subject only to internal variability can generate such spikes, but they are an uncommon occurrence (𝑝 = 2.6 ± 0.1 %). However, when a prolonged La Niña immediately precedes an El Niño in the simulations, as occurred in nature in 1956–57, 1976–77, 2022–23, such spikes become much more common (𝑝 = 16.5 ± 0.6 %). Furthermore, we find that nearly all simulated spikes (94 %) are associated with El Niño occurring that year. Thus, our results underscore the importance of El Niño/Southern Oscillation in driving the occurrence of global warming spikes such as the one in 2023, without needing to invoke anthropogenic forcing, such as changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases or aerosols, as an explanation.

中文翻译：

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2023 年全球变暖高峰是由厄尔尼诺/南方涛动驱动的


摘要。从 2022 年到 2023 年，全球平均地表温度迅速上升了 0.27 ± 0.05 K。这种年际全球变暖峰值在观测记录中并非史无前例，之前的情况发生在 1956-57 年和 1976-77 年。然而，全球变暖为何会出现峰值尚不清楚，2023 年全球变暖的迅速引发了人们的担忧，认为这可能是由外部因素驱动的。在这里，我们表明，仅受内部变异影响的气候模型可以产生此类峰值，但这种情况并不常见（𝑝 = 2.6 ± 0.1 %）。然而，当模拟中厄尔尼诺现象出现之前，拉尼娜现象持续时间较长，如 1956-57 年、1976-77 年、2022-23 年自然界中发生的那样，这种峰值就会变得更加常见 (𝑝 = 16.5 ± 0.6 %)。此外，我们发现几乎所有模拟峰值（94%）都与当年发生的厄尔尼诺现象有关。因此，我们的结果强调了厄尔尼诺/南方涛动在推动全球变暖峰值（例如 2023 年的峰值）发生方面的重要性，而无需援引人为强迫（例如大气中温室气体或气溶胶浓度的变化）作为解释。