Tropical cyclones (TCs) have experienced poleward migration in recent years, but whether this exists in future projections with high-resolution climate models remains unclear. This study investigates the poleward migration of TCs over the western North Pacific (WNP) using CMIP6-HighResMIP models. We first assess the model performance in TC genesis frequency and latitude, which differ greatly from the observations, especially in winter and spring due to misinterpretation of extratropical storms. In this study, we put forward a revised constrained detection method based on the sea surface temperature (SST) and the atmospheric conditions to resolve this bias. Results indicate that the revised detection method has good performance in capturing the annual cycle of TC genesis frequency and latitude. Future projections constrained by this method show that the latitude of TC genesis and lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) both undergo a poleward shift, with the former being more significant. Spatial changes in the dynamic potential genesis index and large-scale environment could explain this shift. The regional changes of Hadley circulation and the role of global warming and internal variability are also discussed.

近年来，热带气旋（TC）经历了向极地迁移，但高分辨率气候模型的未来预测中是否存在这种情况仍不清楚。本研究使用 CMIP6-HighResMIP 模型研究了西北太平洋 (WNP) 上空的 TC 向极地迁移。我们首先评估了模型在TC生成频率和纬度方面的表现，这与观测结果有很大差异，特别是在冬季和春季，由于对温带风暴的误解。在本研究中，我们提出了一种基于海面温度（SST）和大气条件的修正约束检测方法来解决这种偏差。结果表明，修正后的检测方法在捕捉TC发生频率和纬度的年周期方面具有良好的性能。受该方法约束的未来预测表明，热带气旋发生的纬度和寿命最大强度（LMI）均发生极向移动，其中前者更为显​​着。动态潜力成因指数和大尺度环境的空间变化可以解释这种转变。还讨论了哈德利环流的区域变化以及全球变暖和内部变率的作用。