Increasing global food demand will require more food production¹ without further exceeding the planetary boundaries² while simultaneously adapting to climate change³. We used an ensemble of wheat simulation models with improved sink and source traits from the highest-yielding wheat genotypes⁴ to quantify potential yield gains and associated nitrogen requirements. This was explored for current and climate change scenarios across representative sites of major world wheat producing regions. The improved sink and source traits increased yield by 16% with current nitrogen fertilizer applications under both current climate and mid-century climate change scenarios. To achieve the full yield potential—a 52% increase in global average yield under a mid-century high warming climate scenario (RCP8.5), fertilizer use would need to increase fourfold over current use, which would unavoidably lead to higher environmental impacts from wheat production. Our results show the need to improve soil nitrogen availability and nitrogen use efficiency, along with yield potential.

全球粮食需求的增加将需要更多的粮食生产^1，同时又不能进一步超出地球边界² ，同时适应气候变化³ 。我们使用了一组小麦模拟模型，该模型具有来自最高产小麦基因型⁴的改进的库和源性状，以量化潜在的产量增益和相关的氮需求。这是针对世界主要小麦产区代表性地点的当前和气候变化情景进行了探索。在当前气候和本世纪中叶气候变化情景下，当前氮肥施用改善的库和源性状使产量增加了 16%。为了充分发挥产量潜力——在本世纪中叶气候变暖情景下（RCP8.5）全球平均产量增加 52%，化肥使用量需要比当前使用量增加四倍，这将不可避免地导致更大的环境影响小麦生产。我们的结果表明需要提高土壤氮素有效性和氮素利用效率以及产量潜力。