The impacts of tropical cyclones (TCs) on Southeast Asia’s coastlines are acute due to high population densities in low-lying coastal environments. However, the trajectories of TCs are uncertain in a warming climate. Here, we assess >64,000 simulated TCs from the nineteenth century to the end of the twenty-first century for both moderate- and high-emissions scenarios. Results suggest changes to TC trajectories in Southeast Asia, including: (1) poleward shifts in both genesis and peak intensification rates; (2) TC formation and fastest intensification closer to many coastlines; (3) increased likelihoods of TCs moving most slowly over mainland Southeast Asia; and (4) TC tracks persisting longer over land. In the cities of Hai Phong (Vietnam), Yangon (Myanmar), and Bangkok (Thailand), these variations result in future increases in both peak TC intensity and TC duration compared to historical TCs.

由于低洼沿海环境人口密度高，热带气旋 (TC) 对东南亚海岸线的影响非常严重。然而，在气候变暖的情况下，热带气旋的轨迹是不确定的。在这里，我们评估了从 19 世纪到 21 世纪末的超过 64,000 个模拟 TC，包括中等和高排放情景。结果表明东南亚热带气旋轨迹发生了变化，包括：（1）起源和峰值强化率均向极地移动； (2) 靠近许多海岸线的热带气旋形成和最强加强； (3) 热带气旋在东南亚大陆上空移动最慢的可能性增加； (4) TC 径迹在陆地上持续时间更长。在海防（越南）、仰光（缅甸）和曼谷（泰国）等城市，这些变化导致未来热带气旋峰值强度和热带气旋持续时间与历史热带气旋相比有所增加。