Most fisheries are conducted without any scientific knowledge about the size and productivity of the stocks that support them. This navigation in the dark in most fisheries is a major obstacle in making them sustainable sources of nutrition for people in general and income for fishers and other economic actors along supply chains. Fisheries that have not been assessed generally are data‐intermediate and data‐poor, the latter usually having annual time series of landings as the single piece of data available. A major effort in the last two decades has been directed toward developing ‘catch‐only’ stock assessment methods, although some of these methods have been tested and found deficient. Here we provide a novel approach to using annual landing time series as the single source of data to qualitatively judge the condition of un‐assessed stocks using frequentist cumulative probability ogives, both in terms of stock biomass and fishing mortality. A meta‐analysis of the FishSource database allowed us to infer statistical patterns from hundreds of assessed fisheries and thousands of annual landings, biomass, and fishing mortality observations. Four stock‐management types were considered separately in the analysis: short‐lived and others (mid‐ to long‐lived) stocks, controlled or not controlled by catch limits. Obtained cumulative probability ogives provide clear evaluations of stock biomass and fishing mortality trends in all four stock‐management types, leading to actionable information on probable current status and future trends. Using these probability ogives, we developed decision trees that lead to qualitative scores on the exploitation status of un‐assessed stocks.

中文翻译：

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上岸时间序列种群生物量和捕捞死亡率趋势的概率图


大多数渔业是在没有任何关于支持渔业的种群规模和生产力的科学知识的情况下进行的。大多数渔业在黑暗中航行是使其成为一般人的可持续营养来源以及渔民和供应链上其他经济参与者的收入的主要障碍。未经评估的渔业通常是数据中等和数据匮乏的，后者通常将年度上岸时间序列作为可用的单一数据。过去二十年的主要努力是开发“仅限捕捞”的种群评估方法，尽管其中一些方法已经过测试并发现存在缺陷。在这里，我们提供了一种新颖的方法，使用年度登陆时间序列作为单一数据源，使用频率累积概率函数来定性判断未评估种群的状况，包括种群生物量和捕捞死亡率。 FishSource 数据库的荟萃分析使我们能够从数百个渔业评估和数千个年度上岸量、生物量和捕捞死亡率观测中推断出统计模式。分析中分别考虑了四种库存管理类型：短期库存和其他（中长期）库存，受捕捞限额控制或不受控制。获得的累积概率图可以对所有四种种群管理类型中的种群生物量和捕捞死亡率趋势进行清晰的评估，从而提供有关可能的当前状态和未来趋势的可操作信息。利用这些概率图，我们开发了决策树，可以对未经评估的股票的开发状况进行定性评分。