The catastrophic drying of Lake Urmia, once the world’s second-largest saline lake, has led to the degradation of its vital ecosystem services, including microclimate regulation. This study investigates the variation of Lake Urmia’s heat storage, a key driver of its microclimate regulation function, from 2001 to 2020. We analyze Lake Urmia’s monthly energy and water balances considering the spatial variation of hydro-meteorological variables over the lake and explicitly accounting for lake salinity. We found that the heat storage capacity of Lake Urmia has exponentially depleted with its shrinkage. The NRMSE values of the proposed equations for Lake Urmia’s maximum and minimum heat storage were 0.24 and 0.20, respectively. As a potential consequence, the maximum air temperature over the lake has increased while the minimum temperature has remained constant. The reviled role of Lake Urmia’s heat storage capacity in hindering the maximum annual temperature of the area can provide valuable insights into the role of lake conservation in mitigating climate warming.

中文翻译：

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量化乌尔米耶湖储热能力的大量消耗


乌尔米亚湖曾是世界第二大盐湖，但它的灾难性干涸导致其重要生态系统服务（包括小气候调节）的退化。本研究调查了 2001 年至 2020 年乌尔米亚湖蓄热的变化，这是其小气候调节功能的关键驱动因素。我们分析了乌尔米亚湖每月的能量和水平衡，考虑了湖上水文气象变量的空间变化，并明确考虑了湖泊盐度。我们发现乌尔米亚湖的蓄热能力随着其收缩呈指数级下降。乌尔米亚湖最大和最小蓄热方程的 NRMSE 值分别为 0.24 和 0.20。潜在的后果是，湖上的最高气温有所上升，而最低气温则保持不变。乌尔米亚湖的蓄热能力在阻碍该地区最高年气温方面所扮演的饱受诟病的角色，可以为了解湖泊保护在缓解气候变暖方面的作用提供有价值的见解。