This study examines the channels of transmission of unanticipated energy price changes and monetary policy shocks to household consumption decisions. We use a large and dynamic panel data set of Indian households for the analysis. Our findings show that both shocks have adverse effects on aggregate consumption and its categories. Furthermore, rising energy prices and monetary tightening policies disproportionately affect the relatively elastic components of household spending, such as various services, rather than the relatively inelastic demand, such as fuel and food. We also find that consumption of durable goods is more susceptible to these shocks than non-durables owing to higher operating costs. Nevertheless, our findings show a positive interaction effect of monetary and energy shocks on household spending. Both shocks together are perceived as an indication of a booming economy, along with an effort from monetary authorities to safeguard against unanticipated inflation, which in turn boosts household confidence in the fast-growing economy. Additionally, we also examine the effects of these shocks on various indices of household sentiment to validate the presence of the sentiment channel of transmission of these shocks on spending. Lastly, using realized and conditional volatility measures, we find that the effects of these shocks on household spending are exacerbated during periods of high energy price volatility, owing to increased cautiousness effects.

中文翻译：

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论能源价格和货币政策冲击对家庭消费的传导渠道：来自印度的证据


本研究探讨了意外能源价格变化和货币政策冲击对家庭消费决策的传导渠道。我们使用印度家庭的大型动态面板数据集进行分析。我们的研究结果表明，这两种冲击都会对总消费及其类别产生不利影响。此外，能源价格上涨和货币紧缩政策对家庭支出中相对有弹性的部分（如各种服务）产生了不成比例的影响，而不是对相对缺乏弹性的需求（如燃料和食品）产生了不成比例的影响。我们还发现，由于运营成本较高，耐用品消费比非耐用品消费更容易受到这些冲击。尽管如此，我们的研究结果表明货币和能源冲击对家庭支出具有积极的相互作用。这两种冲击一起被视为经济蓬勃发展的迹象，同时货币当局也努力防范意外的通货膨胀，这反过来又增强了家庭对快速增长的经济的信心。此外，我们还研究了这些冲击对各种家庭情绪指数的影响，以验证这些冲击对支出的情绪传导渠道是否存在。最后，使用已实现波动率和有条件波动率指标，我们发现，由于谨慎效应增强，这些冲击对家庭支出的影响在能源价格高波动期间会加剧。