Supply-side interventions that retire highly emitting fossil fuel assets have received increased attention from policymakers and private actors alike. Yet concerns about market leakage—wherein reduced supply from one source is partially offset by increased production from other sources—have raised questions about how much emissions reductions they can achieve. In this paper, we estimate the effects of these supply-side interventions on global emissions, accounting for both market leakage as well as the relative greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of different sources of supply. We account for uncertainty in market leakage rates and the emissions intensities of the curtailed and substitute sources of supply through a Monte Carlo analysis, drawing on supply and demand elasticities from the economics literature and emissions intensity data from the state-of-the-art Oil Climate Index plus Gas (OCI+) dataset on 586 oil and gas fields around the world. We find a rough band of central estimates for life-cycle emissions reductions from permanent and additional supply-side interventions in the range of 40–50% of the gross life-cycle emissions of each barrel curtailed, depending on the relative emissions intensity of the curtailed and substitute sources of supply. Further, across all of 1.53 million Monte Carlo simulations we conduct, we find very high confidence of net emissions reductions from supply-side interventions (nearly 99% of cases). Finally, targeting the most emissions-intensive sources of oil supply could achieve yet further emissions reductions. How one compares methane and CO emissions also has important consequences for which sources to target. Importantly, all estimated emissions reductions we estimate hinge upon a given supply-side intervention being credibly permanent and additional, and our estimates do not assess the uncertainties of those criteria being met due to the idiosyncratic nature of those assessments.

中文翻译：

---

估算供应方化石燃料干预措施的减排量


淘汰高排放化石燃料资产的供应方干预措施越来越受到政策制定者和私人行为者的关注。然而，对市场泄漏的担忧——一种来源的供应减少被其他来源的产量增加部分抵消——引发了人们对它们能够实现多少排放量的质疑。在本文中，我们估计了这些供应方干预措施对全球排放的影响，同时考虑了市场泄漏以及不同供应源的相对温室气体（GHG）强度。我们通过蒙特卡罗分析，利用经济学文献中的供需弹性和最先进石油的排放强度数据，解释了市场泄漏率以及被削减和替代供应来源的排放强度的不确定性。全球 586 个油气田的气候指数加天然气 (OCI+) 数据集。我们发现，对永久性和额外的供应方干预措施所产生的生命周期排放量减少量的粗略估计范围为每桶生命周期总排放量的 40-50%，具体取决于各桶的相对排放强度。减少和替代供应来源。此外，在我们进行的全部 153 万次蒙特卡罗模拟中，我们发现供应方干预措施带来的净排放量减少的可信度非常高（近 99% 的案例）。最后，针对排放最密集的石油供应源可以实现进一步的减排。如何比较甲烷和二氧化碳排放量也会对目标排放源产生重要影响。 重要的是，我们估计的所有估计减排量都取决于给定的供应方干预是否具有可信的永久性和额外性，并且由于这些评估的特殊性，我们的估计并未评估满足这些标准的不确定性。