This study examines the relationship between abnormal tone and project performance of reward-based crowdfunding (RBC) using the Kickstarter data from 2009 to 2020. We document a negative relationship between abnormal tone and the success of a project in the RBC campaign section, while a positive impact in the Risks and Challenges section. This outcome remains robust to a variety of sensitivity tests and after accounting for potential endogeneity concerns. Cross-sectional analyses reveal that the effect of abnormal tone in RBC on project success is contingent on project quality and legal jurisdiction. Further investigation of the concurrent effect of abnormal tone in the two sections shows that an increase in the discretionary tone, given that it is overly optimistic, has a negative effect on funding performance. Last, based on a machine learning Sent-Latent Dirichlet Allocation model, we explore up to 70 specific risk categories embedded in Kickstarter projects, and we find that eight of them are strongly and negatively associated with project success. Our paper provides valuable insights into the significance of disclosure and sheds light on the ongoing and increased regulations on crowdfunding platforms.

中文翻译：

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基于奖励的众筹中的自由裁量语气：项目所有者是否会谈论成功的方法？


本研究使用 2009 年至 2020 年 Kickstarter 数据检验异常基调与基于奖励的众筹 (RBC) 项目绩效之间的关系。我们在 RBC 活动部分记录了异常基调与项目成功之间的负相关关系，而风险与挑战部分的积极影响。在考虑了潜在的内生性问题后，这一结果对于各种敏感性测试仍然稳健。横断面分析表明，RBC 异常音调对项目成功的影响取决于项目质量和法律管辖权。进一步考察这两个部分异常基调的并发效应，发现自主基调的增加过于乐观，会对融资绩效产生负面影响。最后，基于机器学习 Sent-Latent Dirichlet 分配模型，我们探索了 Kickstarter 项目中嵌入的多达 70 个特定风险类别，我们发现其中 8 个与项目成功呈强负相关。我们的论文对信息披露的重要性提供了宝贵的见解，并阐明了对众筹平台正在进行的和不断加强的监管。