arising from Vásquez et al. Nature Climate Change https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01746-w (2023)

Wolbachia release programmes using the wMel strain are suppressing the incidence of dengue in many countries. Using models to predict the impact of increasing temperatures and heatwaves on the replacement of wild mosquito populations with wMel carriers, Vásquez et al.¹ concluded that wMel replacement is resilient to pre-2060 climate change including anomalies, but that sustained heatwaves may still threaten release programmes. Here we suggest that their assumptions, which were extrapolated from laboratory experiments, may be unrealistic and overly simplistic because they focus only on temperature. We urge caution when making predictions about the likely success of specific dengue control programmes and emphasize that models must consider the full extent of environmental effects on Wolbachia and its mosquito host, with experiments and modelling parameters directly linked to current and future microenvironmental conditions.

来自巴斯克斯等人。自然气候变化 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01746-w (2023)

使用 wMel 菌株的沃尔巴克氏体释放计划正在许多国家抑制登革热的发病率。 Vásquez 等人使用模型来预测气温升高和热浪对 wMel 携带者取代野生蚊子种群的影响。 ¹ 得出的结论是，wMel 替代品能够抵御 2060 年之前的气候变化（包括异常情况），但持续的热浪可能仍会威胁释放计划。在这里，我们认为他们的假设是从实验室实验推断出来的，可能不切实际且过于简单化，因为他们只关注温度。我们敦促在预测特定登革热控制计划可能成功时保持谨慎，并强调模型必须考虑环境对沃尔巴克氏体及其蚊子宿主的全面影响，实验和建模参数与当前和未来的微环境条件直接相关。