s Recent data show systematic changes in the diplomacy and practice of war. Conquests, peace treaties, declarations of war, and state boundary changes have declined or disappeared. There are still wars, but they are increasingly fait accomplis, and their outcomes are often not recognized as legal. How can we explain this wide-ranging but seemingly contradictory transformation? Existing accounts, such as those based on a territorial integrity norm, do not adequately explain these changes. This paper uses norm dynamics theory to show that all of these changes can be explained as ‘ripple effects’ of war becoming illegitimate as a way to solve international disputes. The kinds of rhetorical justifications states can convincingly give for engaging in violence have changed. States are navigating this changed international social environment through legitimacy management behaviors. The paper specifies three types of ripple effect, Reframing, Displacement, and Consistency-Maintenance, corresponding to changes in what states say, the actions they perform, and how the audience reacts. We show how this theory unifies all of the existing data into a single explanatory framework. We also apply the theory to the decline of peace treaties to show how ripple effects play out in more detail.

中文翻译：

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战争非法性的连锁反应


最近的数据显示外交和战争实践发生了系统性变化。征服、和平条约、宣战和国家边界变更已经减少或消失。战争仍然存在，但它们越来越成为既成事实，其结果往往不被认为是合法的。我们如何解释这种范围广泛但看似矛盾的转变？现有的账户，例如基于领土完整规范的账户，并不能充分解释这些变化。本文利用规范动力学理论表明，所有这些变化都可以解释为战争作为解决国际争端的一种方式变得不合法的“连锁反应”。国家可以令人信服地为参与暴力提供的修辞理由已经发生了变化。各国正在通过合法性管理行为应对这一变化的国际社会环境。该论文指定了三种类型的连锁反应，即重构、置换和一致性维护，对应于状态所说的内容、执行的操作以及观众如何反应的变化。我们展示了该理论如何将所有现有数据统一到一个解释框架中。我们还将这一理论应用于和平条约的衰落，以更详细地展示连锁反应如何发挥作用。