Abstract. Anthropogenic mercury (Hg) emissions to the atmosphere are a long-lived hazard to human and environmental health. The UN Minamata Convention on Mercury is seeking to lower anthropogenic mercury emissions through a mix of policies from banning certain Hg uses to reducing unintentional Hg release from different activities. In addition to independent Hg policy, strategies to mitigate greenhouse gases, particulate matter (PM) and SO2 may also lower Hg emissions as a co-benefit. This study uses the Greenhouse Gas–Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model to examine the effect of different clean air and climate policies on future global Hg emissions. The baseline scenario assumes current trends for energy use and Hg emissions as well as current legislation for clean air, mercury and climate policy. In addition, we explore the impact of the Minamata Convention, the co-benefits of climate and stringent air pollution policies, and maximum feasible reduction measures for Hg. Hg emission projections until 2050 show noticeable reductions in combustion sectors for all scenarios due to a decrease in global fossil fuel and traditional biomass use, leading to emission reductions of 33 % at baseline and up to 90 % when combining stringent climate controls and the most efficient Hg controls. Cement and non-ferrous metal emissions increase in all scenarios with current air pollution policy but could be reduced by up to 72 % and 46 %, respectively, in 2050 with stringent Hg-specific measures. Other emissions (including waste) are a significant source of uncertainty in this study, and their projections range between a 22 % increase and a 54 % decrease in 2050, depending on both climate and clean air policy. The largest absolute reduction potential for Hg abatement but also the largest uncertainties regarding absolute emissions lie in small-scale and artisanal gold production, where abatement measures could eliminate annual Hg emissions in the range of 601–1371 t (95 % confidence interval), although the uncertainties in the estimate are so high that they might eclipse reduction efforts in all other sectors. In total, 90 % of Hg emissions are covered by provisions of the Minamata Convention. Overall, the findings emphasize the necessity to implement targeted Hg control policies in addition to stringent climate, PM and SO2 policies to achieve significant reductions in Hg emissions.

中文翻译：

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全球人为汞排放情景


摘要。人为向大气排放汞 (Hg) 对人类和环境健康造成长期危害。 《联合国汞水俣公约》正在寻求通过一系列政策来降低人为汞排放，从禁止某些汞用途到减少不同活动中无意的汞排放。除了独立的汞政策外，减少温室气体、颗粒物 (PM) 和二氧化硫 (SO2) 的策略也可以降低汞排放，从而产生连带效益。本研究使用温室气体与空气污染相互作用和协同 (GAINS) 模型来研究不同的清洁空气和气候政策对未来全球汞排放的影响。基准情景假设了当前能源使用和汞排放的趋势以及当前清洁空气、汞和气候政策的立法。此外，我们还探讨了《水俣公约》的影响、气候和严格的空气污染政策的共同效益，以及最大程度可行的汞减排措施。到 2050 年的汞排放预测显示，由于全球化石燃料和传统生物质使用的减少，所有情景下的燃烧部门都会显着减少，导致基线排放量减少 33%，如果将严格的气候控制和最高效的措施相结合，排放量将减少高达 90%汞控制。在当前空气污染政策的所有情景下，水泥和有色金属排放量都会增加，但如果采取严格的汞特定措施，到 2050 年，水泥和有色金属排放量可分别减少高达 72% 和 46%。其他排放（包括废物）是本研究中不确定性的重要来源，他们的预测范围在 2050 年增加 22% 到减少 54% 之间，具体取决于气候和清洁空气政策。 汞减排的最大绝对减排潜力以及绝对排放量的最大不确定性在于小规模和手工黄金生产，其中减排措施可以消除 601-1371 t 范围内的年汞排放量（95 % 置信区间），尽管估计的不确定性如此之高，以至于可能使所有其他部门的减排努力黯然失色。总共 90% 的汞排放均受到《水俣公约》条款的约束。总体而言，研究结果强调，除了严格的气候、颗粒物和二氧化硫政策外，还需要实施有针对性的汞控制政策，以实现汞排放的大幅减少。