According to the modal account of luck it is a matter of luck that p if p is true at the actual world, but false in a wide‐range of nearby worlds. According to the modal account of risk, it is risky that p if p is true at some close world. I argue that the modal accounts of luck and risk do not mesh well together. The views entail that p can be both maximally risky and maximally lucky, but there is nothing which is both maximally lucky and maximally risky. I offer a novel theory of risk that fits together with the modal account of luck and demonstrate that it is both extensionally and formally superior to extant proposals.

中文翻译：

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风险与运气的形而上学


根据运气的模态解释，如果 p 在现实世界中为真，但在广泛的附近世界中为假，则 p 是运气问题。根据风险模态解释，如果 p 在某个封闭世界为真，则 p 是有风险的。我认为运气和风险的模态解释并不能很好地结合在一起。这些观点表明，p 可以同时具有最大风险和最大幸运，但是没有任何东西可以同时具有最大幸运和最大风险。我提出了一种新颖的风险理论，它与运气的模态解释相吻合，并证明它在外延和形式上都优于现有的建议。