We estimate perceptions about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions varies substantially over time, in particular over the monetary policy cycle. Forecasters update their perceptions about the Fed’s policy rule in response to monetary policy actions, measured by high-frequency interest rate surprises, suggesting that they have imperfect information about the rule. Monetary policy perceptions matter for monetary transmission, as they affect the sensitivity of interest rates to macroeconomic news, term premia in long-term bonds, and the response of the stock market to monetary policy surprises. A simple learning model with forecaster heterogeneity and incomplete information about the policy rule motivates and explains our empirical findings.

中文翻译：

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对货币政策的看法


我们根据利率和宏观经济状况的专业预测面板数据来估计对美联储货币政策规则的看法。联邦基金利率对经济状况的依赖程度随着时间的推移，特别是在货币政策周期内，会发生很大的变化。预测者根据高频利率意外来衡量货币政策行动，更新他们对美联储政策规则的看法，这表明他们对该规则的信息不完全。货币政策认知对于货币传导很重要，因为它们影响利率对宏观经济消息的敏感性、长期债券的期限溢价以及股市对货币政策意外的反应。具有预测者异质性和有关政策规则的不完整信息的简单学习模型激发并解释了我们的实证结果。