Although civil war devastates the environment, we still do not understand the role of environmental policies in post-war countries and often have a pessimistic view without empirical evidence. This study challenges this view by arguing that the introduction of independent monitoring mechanisms can make environmental regulations effective even in post-war countries and also by exploiting analytical opportunities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). In 2011–2013, the government implemented independent monitoring mechanisms to lessen the side effects of mining activities on deforestation. The reform, however, only applied to mining permit zones, which had arbitrary grid-based shapes. This allows combining a geographic regression discontinuity and difference-in-differences to a difference-in-geographic-discontinuity (DiGD) design. With satellite-based data available at every 30 metres for over 40 million cells in the DRC, the analysis indicates that the 2011–2013 reform decreased deforestation rates immediately inside the mining permit zones. The effect existed even in the areas of continuing armed conflicts. Further analysis of causal mechanisms suggests that the 2011–2013 reform facilitated the compliance of existing operators and also screened out incompliant operators. Overall, these findings imply that the environmental effects of civil war can depend on post-war policies — a missing link in the literature on environmental security.

中文翻译：

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内战后的环境保护：地理间断差异方法


尽管内战对环境造成破坏，但我们仍然不了解战后国家环境政策的作用，常常在没有经验证据的情况下抱有悲观的看法。本研究挑战了这一观点，认为引入独立监测机制即使在战后国家也可以使环境法规发挥作用，并利用刚果民主共和国（DRC）的分析机会。 2011-2013年，政府实施了独立监测机制，以减轻采矿活动对森林砍伐的副作用。然而，这项改革仅适用于具有任意网格形状的采矿许可区。这允许将地理回归不连续性和双重差分结合到地理不连续性差分 (DiGD) 设计中。根据刚果民主共和国超过 4000 万个小区每 30 米的卫星数据，分析表明 2011 年至 2013 年的改革立即降低了采矿许可证区内的森林砍伐率。即使在持续武装冲突的地区，这种影响也存在。进一步分析因果机制发现，2011-2013年的改革促进了现有经营者的合规，同时也筛选出了不合规的经营者。总的来说，这些发现意味着内战对环境的影响可能取决于战后政策——这是环境安全文献中缺失的一环。