Studying the pressing impacts of climate change on runoff is vital for the sustainable functioning of society and ecosystems. In Senegal, there is insufficient consideration given to the magnitude of the decrease in water resources caused by climate change and the potential impact of this decrease on both society and the environment. The objective of this study was to evaluate the hydrological effects of climate change in the Aga-Foua-Djilas basin by employing CWatM hydrological models inside the frameworks of ISIMIP and HMF-WA. Over the historical period (1981–2019) in the Aga-Foua-Djilas basin, the analysis of all hydrological parameters indicates positive trends, although not statistically significant (except for runoff). Over the future period, unlike temperatures and PET, which show an upward trend in all scenarios, precipitation and runoff show downward trends, which are more significant under SSP 585. For precipitation, Kendall’s Tau shows a downward trend of − 0.157 mm/yr, − 0.321 mm/yr, and − 0.472 mm/yr under SSP 126, SSP 370 and SSP 585, respectively. For runoff, the trends are negative and of the order of − 0.207 m³/s/yr, − 0.44 m³/s/yr, and − 0.565 m³/s/yr, respectively, under SSP 126, SSP 370 and SSP 585 with CwatM and − 0.248 m³/s/yr (SSP 126), − 0.389 m³/s/yr (SSP 245) and − 0.579 m³/s/yr (SSP585) with HMF-WA. Compared with the decrease in precipitation toward the end of the century, the decrease in runoff noted for the distant future (2081–2100) will be of the order of − 32.8% (SSP 126), − 80.8% (SSP 370) and − 94.6% (SSP 585) with CwatM and − 22.3% (SSP 126), − 19.6% (SSP 245) and − 50.9% (SSP 585) with HMF-WA. This study could help policymakers and stakeholders to develop adaptation strategies for the Aga-Foua-Djilas basin.

研究气候变化对径流的紧迫影响对于社会和生态系统的可持续运作至关重要。塞内加尔没有充分考虑气候变化导致水资源减少的幅度以及这种减少对社会和环境的潜在影响。本研究的目的是通过在 ISIMIP 和 HMF-WA 框架内采用 CWatM 水文模型来评估气候变化对 Aga-Foua-Djilas 盆地的水文影响。在阿加-富阿-吉拉斯流域的历史时期（1981年至2019年），所有水文参数的分析都显示出积极的趋势，尽管统计上不显着（径流除外）。在未来一段时间内，与温度和 PET 在所有情景下都呈现上升趋势不同，降水和径流呈现下降趋势，在 SSP 585 下更为显着。对于降水，Kendall's Tau 显示下降趋势为 - 0.157 毫米/年，在 SSP 126、SSP 370 和 SSP 585 下分别为 − 0.321 毫米/年和 − 0.472 毫米/年。对于径流，趋势为负，数量级为 − 0.207 m ³ /s/yr、− 0.44 m ³ /s/yr 和 − 0.565 m ³ /s/yr (SSP 126)，− 0.389 m ³ /s/yr (SSP 245) 和 − 0.579 m ³ /s/yr (SSP585)，使用 HMF-WA。与本世纪末降水量减少相比，遥远的未来（2081-2100）径流减少量将约为 - 32.8% (SSP 126)、 - 80.8% (SSP 370) 和 -使用 CwatM 时为 94.6% (SSP 585)，使用 HMF-WA 时为 - 22.3% (SSP 126)、 - 19.6% (SSP 245) 和 - 50.9% (SSP 585)。 这项研究可以帮助政策制定者和利益相关者制定阿加-富阿-吉拉斯盆地的适应战略。