The Arctic has warmed almost four times faster than the rest of the globe during the past four decades. This has led to multiple impacts in the Arctic such as the melting of glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet, sea ice retreat, permafrost thaw, altered species distribution and abundance, changes in hydrology and snow conditions, and altered wildfire regimes. These documented and projected impacts in the region can also propagate across borders, creating risks and opportunities requiring adaptation responses well beyond the Arctic. By undertaking a systematic literature review that uses a conceptual framework for cross‐border climate change impacts, we demonstrate how local impacts of the type described above, which are often analyzed separately in the literature, may initiate knock‐on effects that can be transmitted and transformed across borders. We illustrate examples of six categories of cross‐border risks resulting from this impact transmission and potentially requiring adaptation. These concern biophysical impacts, trade, infrastructure, finance, geopolitical relationships and human security and social justice. We examine potential adaptation options for responding to such cross‐border risks that are of relevance for Europe. The systemic approach taken in this paper promotes improved understanding of trade‐offs between potential benefits and risks, assists priority‐setting for targeting adaptation interventions, and can account for the important role of non‐climatic drivers in amplifying or dampening the cross‐border risks of climate change impacts in the Arctic.This article is categorized under: Trans‐Disciplinary Perspectives > Regional Reviews Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Observed Impacts of Climate Change Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Learning from Cases and Analogies

中文翻译：

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北极气候变化影响的跨境维度以及对欧洲的影响


在过去的四十年里，北极的变暖速度几乎是全球其他地区的四倍。这导致了北极的多重影响，例如冰川和格陵兰冰盖融化、海冰退缩、永久冻土融化、物种分布和丰度改变、水文和雪况变化以及野火状况改变。这些记录和预测的对该地区的影响也可能跨越边界传播，从而产生风险和机遇，需要在北极以外的地区采取适应措施。通过使用跨境气候变化影响的概念框架进行系统性文献综述，我们展示了上述类型的当地影响（通常在文献中单独分析）如何引发连锁反应，这些连锁反应可以传播和传播跨越国界转型。我们举例说明了这种影响传播导致的六类跨境风险，并且可能需要适应。这些涉及生物物理影响、贸易、基础设施、金融、地缘政治关系以及人类安全和社会正​​义。我们研究了应对此类与欧洲相关的跨境风险的潜在适应方案。本文采用的系统方法促进了对潜在利益和风险之间权衡的更好理解，有助于确定适应干预措施的优先顺序，并可以解释非气候驱动因素在放大或抑制跨境风险方面的重要作用气候变化对北极的影响。本文分类为：跨学科视角 > 评估气候变化影响的区域评论 > 观察到的气候变化影响 评估气候变化的影响 > 评估气候变化脆弱性和适应气候变化的未来影响 > 从案例和类比中学习