ImportanceBlack and other racially minoritized groups are overrepresented among those who experience firearm homicide. There has been a stark increase in incarcerated populations in the US since the 1980s, largely due to differential drug sentencing, of which racially minoritized individuals are also overrepresented; social disorganization theory postulates that community and family instability resulting from incarceration can further worsen crime.ObjectiveTo understand the association of race-specific incarceration with race-specific firearm violence rates in Chicago, Illinois, through the lens of social vulnerability and family instability.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis cross-sectional study with a retrospective cohort design utilized homicide data for the city of Chicago from January 1, 2001, to August 31, 2019. Demographic data at the census block level was obtained from the 2010 decennial census. Incarceration rates were obtained by race and ethnicity at the census tract level from the Opportunity Atlas. Data analysis occurred from January to June 2023.ExposureRace-specific incarceration rates were the primary exposures of interest. The Social Vulnerability Index and single-parent households were studied as mediators.Main Outcomes and MeasuresRace-specific firearm homicide rates were the outcomes of interest. Structural equation modeling was used to understand the mediating effect of social vulnerability and single-parent households on the association of incarceration with firearm homicides.ResultsA total of 46 312 census blocks were evaluated. Black-specific incarceration rates were found to be associated with Black-specific firearm homicides (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.70; 95% CI, 1.50-1.94), but there was no association for Hispanic incarceration rates (IRR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.75-1.28) or White incarceration rates (IRR, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.39-1.16). In the association of Black incarceration rates with Black firearm homicide rates, social vulnerability did not mediate the interaction, but the percentage of single-parent households mediated 23% of the interaction.Conclusions and RelevanceThis study found that higher rates of incarceration were associated with increased rates of firearm homicides among Black communities alone; this association was found to be mediated partially through the density of single-parent households in these areas, suggesting that social disorganization resulting from mass incarceration may perpetuate firearm homicides. Targeted policies addressing mass incarceration and the disparities therein may be a means of reducing urban firearm homicides.

中文翻译：

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芝加哥的监狱状态、社会混乱和枪支凶杀案


重要性黑人和其他少数族裔群体在经历过枪杀的人中所占比例过高。自 20 世纪 80 年代以来，美国被监禁人口急剧增加，这主要是由于毒品量刑的差别，其中少数种族的人所占比例也过高；社会解体理论假设，监禁导致的社区和家庭不稳定会进一步恶化犯罪。目的通过社会脆弱性和家庭不稳定的视角，了解伊利诺伊州芝加哥市特定种族监禁与特定种族枪支暴力率之间的关系。设置和参与者这项采用回顾性队列设计的横断面研究利用了芝加哥市2001年1月1日至2019年8月31日的凶杀数据。人口普查区块级别的人口统计数据来自2010年十年一次的人口普查。监禁率是根据机会地图集在人口普查区一级按种族和民族获得的。数据分析发生于 2023 年 1 月至 6 月。ExposureRace 特定的监禁率是主要的关注风险。将社会脆弱性指数和单亲家庭作为中介进行研究。主要结果和措施特定种族的枪支凶杀率是感兴趣的结果。使用结构方程模型来了解社会脆弱性和单亲家庭对监禁与枪支凶杀之间关系的中介作用。结果总共评估了 46 312 个人口普查区块。研究发现，黑人特定的监禁率与黑人特定的枪支凶杀案相关（发生率比 [IRR]，1.70；95% CI，1.50-1。94），但与西班牙裔监禁率（IRR，0.98；95% CI，0.75-1.28）或白人监禁率（IRR，1.13；95% CI，0.39-1.16）没有关联。在黑人监禁率与黑人枪支凶杀率的关联中，社会脆弱性并没有介导这种相互作用，但单亲家庭的比例介导了 23% 的相互作用。结论和相关性这项研究发现，较高的监禁率与增加的黑人枪支凶杀率相关。仅黑人社区的枪支凶杀率；人们发现，这种关联部分是通过这些地区单亲家庭的密度来调节的，这表明大规模监禁造成的社会解体可能会导致枪支杀人现象长期存在。针对大规模监禁及其差异的针对性政策可能是减少城市枪支凶杀案的一种手段。